Commodities Update The oil market to flip into a deficit after Q1 The economic disruption caused by the coronavirus means that we now expect the oil market to be in a surplus in Q1 2020, as opposed to the deficit that we had previously envisioned. However, providing... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Turnaround in global growth to hit gold demand If the coronavirus is eventually brought under control, we think that 2020 will mark a turnaround for gold demand. ETF inflows are likely to shrink as a more benign macroeconomic backdrop stunts safe... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs already old news China’s PMIs dipped in January, but they offered little indication of the state of the economy in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Though a slump in Chinese activity in Q1 now seems almost... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Coronavirus could push copper market into surplus The outbreak of coronavirus in China threatens to derail the recovery we were expecting in the price of copper this year. In fact, when our estimate for the potential loss of copper demand is plugged... 31st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Palladium dancing to its own tune Palladium’s blistering price rally has probably run its course, but we expect prices to remain close to historic highs in 2020. The market is mired in a deficit and demand growth looks set to remain... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Is the coronavirus-led collapse in oil prices justified? Our analysis suggests that it is difficult to square the coronavirus-led sell-off in oil markets with the fundamentals. Instead, we think the move is rooted in a marked deterioration in investor... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Phase One deal no bonanza for commodities There has been a muted response in commodities markets to the signing of the Phase One trade deal between the US and China, perhaps because the good news was already priced in. That said, it may also... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Limited upside from Phase One trade deal The deal signed yesterday between the US and China was broadly as expected and has not led us to change our economic forecasts. The apparent ceasefire in the battle over tariffs removes a downside... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to plummet by 20% in 2020 We think that a combination of stronger supply, and weaker demand, growth will push the wheat market into a surplus this year. As a result, we expect wheat prices to drop by about 20% in 2020. 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold set to lose Midas touch While the price of gold remains elevated at present, we think it’s only a matter of time before it begins to ease back. Subdued gold imports in China and India and softer safe-haven demand should... 14th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports end 2019 on a high China’s commodity imports were strong in December, and in 2019 as a whole, in part because a number of one-off structural factors boosted volumes. Looking ahead, we expect growth in commodity imports... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Our key calls for the agriculturals in 2020 We think that the prices of wheat and soybeans will tumble this year on the back of high stocks. However, the outlook is more encouraging for the prices of some of other agricultural commodities, such... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Key energy forecasts for 2020 We think that oil prices will rise in 2020, as the market moves into a small deficit. In contrast, we expect natural gas prices to fall owing to strong supply growth and for this, in turn, to dampen... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to rise irrespective of the risk premium Following the recent rise in US-Iran tensions, we estimate that the risk premium in the oil price briefly turned positive. After all, prices rose without there being any disruption to the physical... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Base metals to dethrone precious this year We forecast that the prices of base metals will fare better than precious metals in 2020. This view hinges on a modest recovery in the global economy, which should give a lift to metals demand at a... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Key commodity forecasts for 2020 We are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for commodities prices this year. While global economic growth will remain subdued, we think it will start to revive over the course of 2020. Therefore... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read