Energy Update US gasoline demand to fall even with CAFE changes If enacted, we estimate that the Trump Administration’s reported proposals for altering fuel efficiency standards in automobiles will mean that US gasoline consumption will be around 0.3m bpd higher... 18th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Focus to continue to shift away from US-China trade The muted market reaction to news of a provisional trade deal between the US and China lends weight to our view that the trade war’s grip on metals markets will ease over the coming year. While we are... 17th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Far-fetched promises on US agricultural goods We don’t think that China will import the $40bn of agricultural goods that it has reportedly pledged to buy from the US. As such, the impact on prices should be fairly minimal. 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The best days are behind iron ore After scaling a multi-year high in 2019, we forecast that iron ore prices will fall back over the coming years. This is premised on the continued return of supply from Brazil and Australia following... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Trade deal no panacea for soybeans Regardless of the outcome of US-China trade talks, we think lower Chinese consumption will weigh on the price of soybeans next year. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The case for copper In our view, the outlook for copper prices over the next twelve months is positive. Supply is unlikely to recover nearly as quickly as many assume following major disruptions this year, and demand... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s record oil imports not the whole story China’s commodity imports were relatively strong in November, perhaps reflecting some front-loading of regional spending on infrastructure. But our view that growth in China’s property sector is set... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Latest Trump tariffs pose little downside risk to prices President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from Brazil and Argentina is likely to have little impact on prices. And while this could be interpreted as a sign that... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Backdrop not quite as rosy as China’s PMIs indicate China’s official and unofficial PMIs rose in November, suggesting that the weakness in the manufacturing sector has eased. While this could provide some support to industrial commodity prices in the... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel’s slump gives scope for upside in 2020 Following the recent correction in the nickel price, we now think there is room for it to rise next year. We expect a large loss of supply and a recovery in demand to yield a deeper market deficit... 28th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Iranian oil output at low risk of long-term decline Since the imposition of US sanctions in May 2018, Iranian oil production has fallen by nearly 45%. For our part, we think that output would recover quickly if sanctions were lifted. Moreover, we see... 27th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lead supply shortfall in 2020 looks increasingly likely In our view, market participants have recently become too downbeat on the prospects for lead. In fact, we think there are several reasons to expect the price of lead to rebound in the year ahead. 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities could play catch-up in 2020 Recent market moves, most notably in US equities, suggest to us that there may be too much bad news priced into commodity markets. Accordingly, we expect a modest rise in commodity indices in 2020... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The rally in US lumber prices is not over yet The price of lumber has surged in recent months. We think that prices will continue to rise in 2020 primarily on the back of ongoing strength in US housing starts and falling lumber supply from Canada... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Burgeoning supply to take the shine off zinc The price of zinc has risen a little since its recent low in September on the back of unanticipated disruptions to supply. But we expect it to fall back again next year, premised on a rebound in... 19th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Consumption data are overstating aluminium demand We think that aluminium consumption figures are being flattered by a resurgence in off-exchange stockpiling. As such, and contrary to consensus expectations of a market deficit in 2019, we think that... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
