Energy Update Turning a little more positive on oil prices in 2020 We expect that global oil supply will remain constrained in 2020. But we also forecast somewhat stronger growth in demand next year and a pick-up in risk appetite on the back of monetary easing. As a... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update More to dwindling aluminium output than low prices At first glance, weak global aluminium output so far this year can be chalked up to the slump in prices. However, lower Chinese production growth has more to do with government-led crackdowns on... 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Turning a little more positive on oil prices in 2020 We expect that global oil supply will remain constrained in 2020. But we also forecast somewhat stronger growth in demand next year and a pick-up in risk appetite on the back of monetary easing. As a... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs provide cold comfort China’s official and unofficial PMIs rose in September, but we think this is unlikely to mark an economic turnaround not least because global demand looks set to weaken further. What’s more, signs of... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Revising down our 2020 global oil supply forecast Lower production in Saudi Arabia and the lower-than-expected US output growth have led us to revise down our global oil supply growth estimates. We now expect the market surplus to be smaller than we... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Just how much nickel is sitting off-exchange? We estimate that 190,000 tonnes of refined nickel have flowed into unreported stocks since 2017. In other words, nickel stocks are much higher than official numbers indicate. This supports our view... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update The US to become a net oil exporter in 2021 US production of light crude oil will continue to grow in the coming years, and we expect that this will lead to the US becoming a net exporter of crude oil by 2021. 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese outages won’t boost LME aluminium price Smelter outages in China have led to a surge in the ShFE price of aluminium, and there is mounting speculation that the LME price will soon follow suit. We disagree. In contrast, our in-house model... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Three possible outcomes from the Aramco attack Given the uncertainty about the impact on supply of this weekend’s attack on Saudi Aramco, we are not changing our oil price forecasts yet. However, in this Update, we outline three possible scenarios... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc prices have further to fall Surging Chinese smelter output and faltering demand mean we think that zinc prices are set to drop by more than 15% by the end of this year and are unlikely to start recovering until the second half... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update The gold price rally is over While we are revising up our once-bullish end-2019 forecasts for the prices of gold and silver, we think that the price rally this year has now run its course. Next year, we expect a recovery in bond... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Grim outlook for Pacific coal prices The usual seasonal uplift in demand should support the price of Pacific coal until end-2019. However, we expect average prices to fall in the years ahead owing in large part to weaker demand prospects... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Strength in China’s commodity imports won’t last long China’s commodity imports ticked up in August, in part due to strong infrastructure spending. But we expect them to weaken in the months ahead as temporary factors fade and construction activity tails... 9th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices still due a pick-me-up this year We continue to expect a modest rebound in coffee prices by end-2019 as currently low prices force many high-cost producers to exit the market altogether. 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Back to 2014 for nickel Indonesia’s announcement of an imminent ban on exports of nickel ore has sent nickel prices to a five-year high. While trending higher initially, we expect prices to slump next year as supply is... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China fiscal stimulus not enough to boost prices China’s official and unofficial PMIs diverged in August. But both remain consistent with slower year-on-year growth in the remainder of 2019, which does not bode well for energy and industrial metals... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
