Latin America Economics Update The fallout from protests in Peru Widespread unrest across several regions in Peru could make the central bank’s job of reducing above-target inflation even more difficult while also threating to hamper activity in some of the country... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Higher price forecasts due to China reopening China’s rapid reopening and the likelihood of policy stimulus there has improved the macro-economic backdrop for commodities in 2023. But with developed economies in recession, and a somewhat stronger... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports set to rebound this year Commodity imports generally rose in December, but fell in 2022 as a whole. In a possible sign of optimism around reopening, soybean imports skyrocketed. China’s unexpectedly swift switch to living... 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Upgrade to 2023 China forecast and its implications Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our forecast for growth there from 2.0% to 5.5%. This means that global GDP growth will be stronger than... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A lower gas price forecast, but prices to stay high European natural gas prices have halved over the past month as usage stayed low and LNG imports hit record highs. Barring dramatically colder weather, EU gas storage looks set to be in a more... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity demand to remain weak in Q1 The December survey data out of China were uniformly downbeat. The plunge in the official services PMI points to a fall in oil demand, but we suspect that the hit to industrial activity (and metals... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Metals Demand Monitor (Oct.) Demand growth for industrial metals slowed in October and almost certainly weakened further last month. We expect demand growth to remain sluggish, or even contract, in the first half of 2023 as the... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Rise in risk appetite for industrial metals is premature Unusually, investors have been reducing their net-long position in the oil futures market, but increasing their position in industrial metals. We suspect this reflects optimism about China reopening... 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update EU gas price cap unlikely to be triggered The EU’s new policy to limit gas prices is unlikely to be activated next year. And with so many caveats built in, it seems the only thing countries agreed on was that a cap was indeed needed to show... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The World in 2023: The outlook for commodity prices We think most commodity prices will ease back in early 2023, at the height of the global recession and monetary tightening in many major economies. That said, we expect a relatively shallow recession... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Weak demand to drag oil prices lower early next year The recent slump in oil prices tells us one thing – that demand concerns are in the driving seat. Given that we expect a further slowdown in global growth in Q1 2023, we think prices could fall... 13th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Energy stocks may hold up better than oil prices suggest Even if oil prices don’t rebound substantially in the near term, we doubt developed market equities in the energy sector will reverse course and underperform the rest of the stock market next year. In... 9th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China re-opening optimism boosts commodity imports Rather surprisingly, commodity imports generally ticked up in November, despite the wider deterioration in China’s trade position. However, we think this reflects undue optimism about an imminent pick... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Unpacking the G7 oil price cap ahead of 5th December There are only a few days to go until the next packages of EU sanctions on Russia targeting its oil trade come into force. There are a few key details still left to be finalised, but it seems to us... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand under growing pressure The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update China concerns raise downside risks to our forecasts With China now battling its most widespread COVID-19 outbreak since the start of the pandemic, the country and its economy face a dire few weeks. As a result, China’s demand for oil will come under... 25th November 2022 · 4 mins read
