Industrial Metals Update Iron ore rally on borrowed time We think the recent rally in the iron ore price will soon go into reverse. Steel demand in China has surged in recent months, but we think that will prove temporary. China’s steelmakers should cut... 14th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices – what goes up won’t come down in 2024 While we think Saudi Arabia and Russia’s supply cuts, which have sent oil prices surging in recent weeks, will be rolled over into next year, fears of triple digit prices in 2024 are overblown. We... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s surge in commodity imports likely to moderate China’s commodity import volumes rose strongly in August compared to July. Crude oil imports were probably supported by the ongoing recovery in the aviation sector, which we expect to continue in... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs encouraging for commodities demand While doom and gloom builds around China’s growth, PMIs for August provided some encouragement this week, even if they didn’t paint a picture of booming commodities demand. They suggest infrastructure... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Solar power to shine on silver in 2024 We think that the silver price will fall over the next few months. But as macroeconomic and financial factors switch from a drag to a boost to demand, and as photovoltaic demand gathers pace, the... 31st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update China’s demand for oil and natural gas will stay alight China’s energy demand has been a bright spot in the gloom of an ailing property sector and disappointing economic growth. We think China’s crude oil and natural gas demand will rise further next year... 30th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Volatility a reminder scars remain in natural gas markets Price volatility in the wake of news of possible strike action at Australian LNG export terminals serves as a reminder that natural gas markets are still carrying the scars of Russia’s invasion of... 21st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China stimulus not a silver bullet for industrial metals The outlook for industrial metals demand has deteriorated alongside the weakening of China’s economy this year, particularly in the property sector. Monetary and fiscal stimulus might paper over the... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update A fact-finding mission on EV emissions Given the dominance of coal in China’s energy mix, a medium-sized electric vehicle (EV) produced there currently starts life with a “carbon debt” almost twice that of an equivalent internal combustion... 15th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to ease back, but remain elevated We think that Arabica and Robusta coffee prices will remain historically high over the next 12 months or so, but especially the Robusta price owing to greater El Niño-related supply risks. With that... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports falter but won’t collapse China’s commodity import volumes fell in July compared to June. Policy support should help lift metals imports over the next few months. And although crude oil imports fell sharply, we think that... 8th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ supply cuts to keep the oil price supported Saudi Arabia’s announcement yesterday that it would extend its unilateral oil production cut of 1m bpd into September sent the Brent crude oil price climbing to $85 per barrel, where it remains today... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update India’s rice export ban: a food security warning shot? We think the price of rice is set to climb after India’s additional rice export restrictions have exacerbated global shortage concerns. For now, though, we don’t expect other major producers to follow... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs are grim reading for commodities demand China’s PMIs suggest that commodities demand has come completely off the boil. For the recent rally in industrial metals prices to be sustained, China’s policymakers will have to deliver on promises... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update El Niño likely to add to supply woes The widely-differing impact of El Niño across continents means that the net effect on global mining output is not clear cut. On balance, though, the likelihood is that it will lead to lower ore output... 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update El Niño unlikely to fire up the price of all staples El Niño is coming but the picture is more nuanced than one of doom and gloom for global production of all crop types. For corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, larger harvests in some regions can outweigh... 14th July 2023 · 4 mins read
