Asset Allocation Update What to make of gold’s resistance to the surge in TIPS yields We suspect that the reduced liquidity of inflation-protected Treasuries vis-à-vis their conventional counterparts is one reason why the price of gold has not fallen as much as might have been expected... 14th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Oil supply to be constrained into next year We have lowered our estimate of global oil supply in 2023 after OPEC+’s announcement that it would cut production quotas from November. As a result, we no longer expect the oil market to be in a... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC+ cut highlights Saudi shift away from the US Yesterday’s decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd adds to signs that, in a world economy that is fracturing, Saudi Arabia is tilting away from the US and leaning towards a China... 6th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to soft commodity demand Industrial metals prices rose following the release of the latest survey data on China’s manufacturing sector. But the average of the headline PMIs continued to decline, as did the average of the... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update A closer look at temperature and gas use in Europe With the winter fast approaching and concern about natural gas supply from Russia looming large, we reviewed the relationship between temperature and gas demand in the EU. The key point is that the... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Constrained supply to bolster grains prices for longer We now expect lower supply of grains over the coming months as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to reduce Black Sea exports and extreme weather conditions mean global stocks have been drawn down. We... 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Making sense of sky-high coal prices in Asia Thermal coal prices in Asia rose to record highs in early September and have only fallen back slightly since. This was despite no major supply disruptions and in contrast to falls in other energy... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Electronics sector to compound silver’s recent woes With the global electronics sector struggling and the more general global economic backdrop deteriorating, we think the silver price will remain under pressure over the rest of this year. 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Brent price premium to persist Europe’s scramble to replace Russian oil has left the price of Brent crude trading at a substantial premium to WTI for most of this year. But we expect this premium to narrow in 2023-24 as low US... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Europe should avoid widespread gas rationing We don’t think Europe will be forced to widely ration natural gas this winter because the sky-high price should attract sufficient LNG from abroad to replace reduced imports from Russia, whilst also... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s trade data show persistently weak oil demand Commodity import volumes generally held up well in August, with the exception of crude oil imports. As long as China continues with pandemic-related lockdowns, oil demand is likely to remain weak. 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Demand outlook deteriorating The latest manufacturing PMIs out of China and emerging Asia point to a worsening demand outlook for commodities, but especially industrial metals. This adds weight to our view that industrial metals... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update A revived Iran nuclear deal would tie OPEC’s hands A revived Iran nuclear deal would quickly bring an additional 1mn bpd of crude oil production online, which would directly weigh on global oil prices. But the bigger impact would be to make it less... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Could cheap Norwegian gas fix Europe’s energy crisis? One left-field option for alleviating Europe’s gas crisis that has been doing the rounds is the potential for asking Norway to discount the price of its gas exports. This Update looks at eight key... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Precious Metals Update Palladium price to rise through 2023-24 We forecast palladium demand to pick up slightly over the next two years, while supply growth is set to remain muted, keeping the market in a deficit throughout. Continued drawdowns of stocks over... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
