Energy Update JODI Energy Demand Monitor (Dec. & Jan.) JODI data on global oil and natural gas consumption reveal that global energy demand remained in the doldrums around the turn of the year. We suspect a recovery in natural gas demand is more likely to... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Futures Market Monitor (Apr. 2023) The surprise OPEC+ decision to cut oil production sent oil futures curves into steeper backwardation. This doesn’t necessarily mean that market participants see prices falling from here, but rather... 5th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ shakes up and tightens the oil market The surprise decision by OPEC+ to cut production has meant we have revised up our oil price forecasts for end-2023 and end-2024. This does not materially change our outlook for inflation in advanced... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Drought to push Argentina’s economy into deep recession The historic drought afflicting Argentina will cause a steeper contraction in GDP than most expect this year and intensify balance of payments strains by reducing export earnings to the tune of 2-3%... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Soft demand outside China a key headwind to prices The March PMIs released for China suggest that the reopening rebound is slowing. While there seems further scope for oil demand to continue to recover, the outlook for metals demand appears much... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices on a tear, but not for long The ongoing rally in the US steel price appears supply-driven and will, most likely, be short-lived. We expect the rally to fizzle out and go into reverse as the US economy slides into recession. 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Clean tech race to hit EU coal and gas demand The EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act announced last week aims to keep the manufacture of clean technologies within the EU and shows that global fracturing will take place within blocs as well as between... 24th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Henry Hub prices to be rising by end-2023 US natural gas prices have plummeted recently amid subdued demand and elevated stocks. However, demand is expected to revive this year and next, which will put upward pressure on prices. 22nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities and the spillovers from financial markets While commodity prices have also been caught up in the chaos stemming from the banking sector turmoil, so far the impact hasn’t been too alarming as price falls for most commodities haven’t been... 17th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update First thoughts on banking stress and commodity prices Commodity prices have tumbled as concern about a banking crisis has grown. The downside risks to our forecasts, which we recently attributed to higher interest rates, now include banking sector stress... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of restored Saudi-Iran ties The restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran adds to signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which may help to reduce risk premia in financial assets in the... 13th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Metals Demand Monitor Metals Demand Monitor (Dec.) Demand growth for industrial metals slowed to a halt at the end of last year. Even with some more recent improvements in advanced economy activity growth, metals demand probably kicked off the year on... 9th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update JODI Energy Demand Monitor (Nov. & Dec.) JODI data on global oil and natural gas consumption show that global energy demand was weak in late 2022. China’s rapid reopening will likely boost demand for both. But plenty of downside risk remains... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Unpacking China’s NPC for commodities The National People’s Congress reports struck a cautious note on the outlook for economic activity in China this year. Fiscal stimulus will be limited and efforts to prevent “disorderly” expansion in... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Futures Market Monitor (Mar. 2023) Most commodity prices fell and futures curves shifted lower this past month as higher interest rate expectations in advanced economies clouded the demand outlook. This is consistent with the downside... 7th March 2023 · 4 mins read
