Commodities Update The higher gold goes, the harder it could fall It’s notoriously hard to objectively value gold, and it’s plausible that the rapid ascent in gold prices could reflect a paradigm shift in demand. In fact, if gold prices were to follow the trajectory... 30th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What if the US strikes Iran (again)? Fresh strikes by the US on Iran would, coming in the wake of recent protests in the country, raise the chances of some form of regime change which could eventually pave the way for Iran’s possible... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update How to make sense of the industrial metals rally The mayhem in precious metals markets has captured the majority of headlines, but several industrial metals prices have increased by a lot too. We are sceptical that near-term fundamentals justify... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Trump’s threats strain US-Europe energy relationship Strains in US-Europe relations under President Trump mean that European policymakers may perceive the region’s growing dependence on the US for energy to be a strategic vulnerability. This is not as... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to keep falling back, but risks still brewing Coffee prices have fallen back from their record highs, and overall, we think that they will edge lower over the course of the year. That said, several risks could keep coffee prices elevated by... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Iran instability a bigger headache than Venezuela The risks to the oil market from growing instability in Iran are much greater than in Venezuela. This is not only because Iran produces much more oil itself, but there are also a greater number of... 14th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Scrap recycling won’t ease metals supply woes yet The recycling of scrap metals and minerals has been put forward as a potential solution to high metals prices and the west’s push towards self-sufficiency, while also offering a promising step towards... 13th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Protests in Iran: the economic and oil market implications It’s unclear how the protests that have spread across Iran will develop and how they will affect the ruling regime and the oil sector. But the prospect of disruption to Iranian energy output presents... 12th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions on the “shadow fleet” The seizure of the Marinera oil tanker by the US has put the “shadow fleet” under the spotlight, with some estimates suggesting it now accounts for ~20% of global tanker capacity. While a concerted... 8th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on Venezuela’s oil sector In light of the acute attention on Venezuela’s oil sector, this Update answers five key questions on the potential for oil production in the country. 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Copper: the euphoria will disappoint Although supply concerns are still present, the most recent surge in copper prices seems to be some spillover from exuberance in other corners of commodity markets. Looking ahead, we suspect that... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of recent precious metal price surges? The explosive rises in silver, platinum, and palladium prices in recent weeks suggest that retail investor-driven exuberance in the gold market has found another outlet. However, if our view that FOMO... 5th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Venezuela’s vast energy potential to remain untapped Despite President Trump’s obvious desire for US oil companies to ramp up activity in Venezuela, lower oil prices and political uncertainty will frustrate efforts to exploit its vast energy potential... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Key Commodity themes to watch in 2026 Our latest Outlook outlines our commodity price forecasts over the coming years. This Update further highlights the key themes and the factors that will shape commodity market developments in 2026. 18th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Venezuela blockade poses limited upside to oil prices The US blockade on sanctioned oil from Venezuela crystallises a key risk that has overshadowed the oil market in recent months. That said, the upside risks for oil prices are limited, not least... 17th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update New Simandou supply will sink iron ore prices Against the backdrop of weakening demand, the ramp-up in iron ore supply from the Simandou mine in Guinea is a key driver of our below-consensus view that iron ore prices will fall sharply over the... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
