Industrial Metals Update China’s steel price to fall, despite reduced output We expect China’s steel output to fall a little this year in line with government objectives. But we think that subdued demand, notably from the steel-intensive construction sector, will lead to lower... 27th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Risk of tighter agricultural export restrictions growing The recent tightening of export restrictions has been limiting the supply of staple agricultural commodities available to global markets and pushing up prices. In light of the ban on wheat exports... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Auto sector woes to weigh on natural rubber prices After a post-pandemic rebound in 2021, we expect growth in global demand for natural rubber (NR) to slow this year in tandem with a downturn in industrial activity, notably in the NR-intensive auto... 18th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Weaker demand to enable stocks to build Exchange stocks of base metals have fallen so far this year as high power costs have choked the supply of refined metals. Yet, we expect stocks to build as a weaker economic outlook for key metal... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update High fuel prices to suppress US oil consumption We expect US fuel prices to remain historically high this year due to supply constraints. As a result, we suspect that oil consumption in the US will remain seasonably low for much of the rest of the... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Some bright spots in China’s commodities trade data Energy commodity imports held up relatively well in April given the widespread COVID-19 restrictions. But the trade data throw up some question marks about demand for industrial metals given the... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Weaker electronics demand will weigh on tin We expect weaker electronics demand and a recovery in supply from South-East Asia to weigh on the tin price, dragging it lower by end-year to $34,000 per tonne from around $41,000 currently. 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Not just Indonesia export ban boosting palm oil prices We expect Indonesia’s latest ban on palm oil exports to be short-lived, but constrained supply and the high prices of other edible oils, coupled with elevated oil prices, will support the price of... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update PMI readings bode ill for commodities demand The global manufacturing PMI fell back in April. Admittedly, it was a sharp drop in China’s PMI that weighed on the global aggregate, but there are warning signs in the PMIs of most of the major... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria from today because of a payments dispute will only strengthen the EU’s resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, keeping gas... 27th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s iron ore consumption peaked Iron ore prices have rocketed by close to 30% since the start of 2022 on supply fears. Yet, we expect cooler economic activity in China to weigh on iron ore demand, causing prices to fall by end-year. 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Softer housing demand to bring down US lumber price A cooling US housing market will weigh on lumber prices, despite disruption to imports from Canada. We expect the lumber price to continue its downward trend, but to remain well above its 10-year... 21st April 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Henry Hub price set to ease Strong demand for LNG exports should lead to a higher average price of US natural gas this year. But we expect prices to ease back in the coming months as demand falls over the summer and output stays... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports pointing to weaker demand The latest trade data out of China suggest that recent restrictions imposed to contain the surge in new cases of COVID-19 are hitting commodity demand hard. And we think it will remain weak in the... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read