The recent partial recovery in the price of gold vindicates the cautiously positive view we have held since the slump in the first half of 2013. We continue to expect further gains over the course of this year, helped by continued strong demand from China and an eventual easing of the import ban in India. Gradual tightening in US monetary policy could trigger fresh falls in 2015 and beyond, although the downside should be limited by the (probably rising) floor set by mining costs and an extended period of still (relatively) loose monetary policy across the developed world.
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