China Economics Update Lifting the official retirement age is not the answer The contraction in China’s population has triggered renewed discussion of what the government could do to counter the demographic drag. One popular suggestion is to lift China’s statutory retirement... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update How many Chinese will hop overseas this year? The Year of the Rabbit that begins on Sunday will see a revival in outbound tourism from China that we expect to be stronger than recoveries seen elsewhere. China is reopening into a world that has... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economic fracturing in 2023 – new year, new risks The theme of global economic fracturing, which was the focus of our Spotlight Series of research last September, is at the centre of economic discussion in 2023, including at Davos. We held an online... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update A faster-than-expected turnaround We had expected disruption from China’s reopening wave of COVID infections to weigh heavily on activity well into Q1. But there is mounting evidence that much of China’s population has already been... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Reopening’s impact on inflation in China and abroad The shift toward living with COVID will put some upward pressure on prices in China. But the uptick in inflation will not be as large as that seen in many other countries as they emerged from COVID... 9th January 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Another look at the Hong Kong dollar Downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar has abated in recent weeks and we think it is very unlikely that the existing currency framework will be abandoned any time soon. In view of the wider... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Lying flat, getting steam-rollered China’s authorities appear to have given up trying to manage the spread of COVID-19. If we’re right, the surge in infections underway in Beijing will spread rapidly across the country. As is happening... 15th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update How will the authorities respond? The authorities will not allow a protest movement to occupy China’s streets for any length of time. If the protests continue, a crackdown is very likely. They have no good options in the near-term to... 28th November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update RRR cut intended to provide lockdown support The reduction in the required reserve ratio that the PBOC just announced will help banks follow through on a directive to defer loan repayments from firms struggling with widening lockdown... 25th November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Threat of widespread lockdowns high and rising The next few weeks could be the worst in China since the early weeks of the pandemic both for the economy and the healthcare system. Efforts to contain the current outbreak will, at the very least... 22nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update More policy action needed to revive property sector Recent policy announcements have raised hopes that the property downturn may be coming to an end. But while the measures made public so far reduce some of the downside risks by giving developers and... 17th November 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Early zero-COVID exit would hurt economy in 2023 A shift away from zero-COVID would be positive for China’s economy over the medium term. But the immediate disruption of reopening would probably exceed the cost of keeping the policy in place... 10th November 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update What Xi’s clean sweep means for the economy Xi Jinping has removed the last vestiges of rival factions from the upper echelons of the Party, stacking the Politburo full of loyalists in a clean sweep not seen since the Mao era. With political... 24th October 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Xi wants a more self-sufficient and socialist China General Secretary Xi’s Report to the Party Congress signalled a further shift away from market-based reforms in favour of a state-led campaign to increase self-sufficiency and economic security... 17th October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Zero-COVID is here to stay There is no prospect of China lifting its zero-COVID policy in the near future and it probably won’t happen before the end of 2023. If the leadership did want to transition to living with the virus... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
