China Economics Update Lockdown to tip Hong Kong into a deep recession The expansionary budget unveiled today will provide some support to Hong Kong’s economy this year. But this is unlikely to fully offset the drag from Fed rate hikes, let alone the massive hit to... 23rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Olympics highlights growing rift with the West At the Beijing Winter Olympics, China is once again displaying its sporting prowess. But the international reception has been notably icier than that for the 2008 Summer Games, highlighting that China... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China-Taiwan ≠ Russia-Ukraine A Russian invasion of Ukraine would not make a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely and would not undermine the willingness or ability of Taiwan’s allies to come to its defence. 15th February 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update A pause, not an end, to easing The People’s Bank (PBOC) has refrained from further policy easing for the time being. It left rates unchanged today when injecting liquidity via its reverse repo operations and medium-term lending... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update US-China trade deal stalemate will drag on China made none of the additional purchases it committed to under the Phase One trade deal. The Biden administration isn’t pleased but doesn’t have good options to force China to do more. And China... 10th February 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Deposit rates may be next PBOC target Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) continue the PBOC’s efforts to push down borrowing costs. We expect additional easing to follow in the coming months... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC takes a bigger bite of the easing apple The People’s Bank (PBOC) has stepped up its efforts to loosen monetary conditions, following up last month’s reduction to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) with cuts to the rates at which it lends to banks... 17th January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Why we still think the renminbi will weaken China’s currency was remarkably stable against the US dollar in 2021 and appreciated against other major currencies. But we doubt that trend will continue this year: a slowing economy, monetary policy... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Peak homebuilding The amount of residential floor space being built in China hit a record last year. With new project starts dropping sharply recently, the government has now unveiled plans to ramp up construction of... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update A guide to political events in 2022 Korea, the Philippines and India are each holding elections this year that will play a role in setting fiscal and structural reform priorities, including the possible introduction of a universal basic... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in China in 2022 2022 will be a year of slower growth in China as the property and export sectors weaken and structural constraints loom larger. A desire to keep a grip on credit risks will inhibit the policy response... 5th January 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Easing cycle has further to run The People’s Bank has taken another modest easing step with a 5bp reduction to the One-Year Loan Prime Rate, although it kept the Five-Year rate on hold. We expect more easing to follow in the coming... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update RRR cut today, rate cuts tomorrow? The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks, shortly after Premier Li and the Politburo each separately hinted at an increase in policy support... 6th December 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold but wider easing already underway The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for the 19th consecutive month today. But officials are already easing policy in other ways, such as by relaxing constraints on mortgage lending. The PBOC... 22nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Home sales on the cusp of a rebound New home sales have dropped by a fifth since March, a similar-sized slump to those seen during the previous two housing downturns. With policy now turning more supportive, high-frequency data suggest... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Pullback in easing expectations overdone The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained on hold for the 18th straight month today. And investors have recently pared back their expectations for monetary easing. But given growing economic strains... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
