China Economics Update Country Garden is Evergrande-lite but worse-timed Financial problems at Country Garden, once considered among China’s strongest developers, will further undermine confidence among homebuyers and creditors, exacerbating the property downturn. The... 16th August 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Deflation likely temporary but slowdown isn’t Consumer price inflation slipped into negative territory in July. But this probably won’t last more than a quarter or two and has less to do with the health of domestic demand than many think... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s property sector is increasingly state-led The property downturn has left state-owned developers the dominant players in a previously privately-led sector. The state is likely to continue playing a larger role as consolidation continues around... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s weakness due to further slide in trend growth We estimate that China’s trend rate of growth has slowed from 5.0% in 2019 to 3.0% now, based on our China Activity Proxy. This is a steeper deceleration than in the years leading up to the emergence... 2nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China and Japanification: How great is the risk? China is not suffering a balance sheet recession: most private firms are not highly indebted and would borrow if they had more confidence in the economic outlook. But there are other parallels with... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Intervention time: what next for the yen and the renminbi? China has stepped up its support of the renminbi and Japan appears to be edging closer to direct intervention to prop up the yen. While pressure from higher US interest rates may well continue in the... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Jun.) The PBOC has lowered its policy rates for the first time since last summer, reflecting growing concerns among policymakers about the health of China’s recovery. Friday’s State Council meeting... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Answers to your questions on China’s slowdown Challenges to China’s long-run growth potential that were mounting a few years ago are now evident to all. We continue to expect trend growth to have fallen to around 2% in 2030. 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update RRR cut not a major easing move The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR). This will provide a bit of financial relief for China’s large and medium-sized banks. It may also help nudge down... 17th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EMs’ exposure to bank flows A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong’s recovery to benefit from fiscal support With Hong Kong’s economy on the mend, the budget unveiled today curtailed some of last year’s emergency spending. But it still signals a supportive fiscal stance, particularly in areas hardest hit by... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Rare drop in household wealth will cap recovery Bank deposits held by Chinese households have soared over the past year. But that mostly reflects a shift out of riskier assets rather than a surge in savings. In fact, our calculations show that... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read