Climate Economics Update Emissions in China are close to a turning point China’s rapid uptake of clean power means that it is on track to overachieve on its target of reaching peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. That said, the pace of decline will be slow at first... 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Exports to remain a near-term prop to growth Global demand is giving a bigger boost to China’s economy than we had anticipated this year and foreign tariffs will make little difference to aggregate export performance in the near term. We now... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update What would an end to the property crisis look like? Resolution of China’s property crisis would result in residential sales being substantially higher than today. Sales could rise by a third. But we wouldn’t expect prices to increase by much, if at all... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Chinese green export volumes remain at strong levels Whilst export values of the “New Three” fell for the sixth consecutive month in y/y terms in April, export volumes remained close to their record peak. Meanwhile, the sharp drop-off in China’s exports... 20th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rebound in Chinese equities may be sweet, but short Improving sentiment towards Chinese equities has sparked a further rebound over the past month, with stocks there having generally outperformed those elsewhere over this period. While we continue to... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Destocking could offer a short-run fix to property woes Government purchases of unsold housing may help to stabilise China’s property sector in the near-term, alleviating a key economic headwind. But they won’t prevent the sector from shrinking... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update US tariffs tighten the ratchet again The tariffs announced today on US imports from China won’t cause much direct economic damage since trade in the affected goods is already low. But US economic sanctions on China seem to act like a... 14th May 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s export success also due to weakness at home China’s leadership argues that the country’s export success in industries like auto production is a reflection of its technological strength. It understandably doesn’t want to focus on another factor... 8th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update What to make of the surge in China’s carbon price? The sharp rise in the price of carbon under China’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) this year, to a record high, underlines that Beijing sees carbon pricing as a key part of its emissions-reduction... 7th May 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Will China devalue the renminbi? Chinese policymakers won’t risk reliving the turmoil of 2015 by engineering a sudden devaluation of the renminbi. They may allow the currency to weaken gradually over the coming years to help industry... 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will China’s trade surplus impact EMs? While EM policymakers haven’t raised concerns about Chinese overcapacity in the same way that their counterparts in the US and Europe have, they too are facing widening trade deficits with China. We... 24th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Green tech to stay central to China overcapacity fears The rapid expansion in China’s manufacturing capacity of green technology is a symptom of the country’s investment-led growth model and so there is no reason to believe that any change in tack is... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – sentiment still depressed A week spent visiting clients, contacts and friends in Beijing and Shanghai has underlined the extent of the pessimistic shift in sentiment within China. 23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update How worried should we be about the renminbi & yen? We continue to think that policymakers in China and Japan will do enough to keep their currencies from weakening much further, but the risk of a break lower in one, or both, is increasing. 27th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update “New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data Amid increasing concerns in the west over China’s dominance in the production of solar panels, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries – dubbed the “New Three” – China’s exports of green... 14th March 2024 · 0 mins read
