China Economics Update China’s export success also due to weakness at home China’s leadership argues that the country’s export success in industries like auto production is a reflection of its technological strength. It understandably doesn’t want to focus on another factor... 8th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update What to make of the surge in China’s carbon price? The sharp rise in the price of carbon under China’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) this year, to a record high, underlines that Beijing sees carbon pricing as a key part of its emissions-reduction... 7th May 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Will China devalue the renminbi? Chinese policymakers won’t risk reliving the turmoil of 2015 by engineering a sudden devaluation of the renminbi. They may allow the currency to weaken gradually over the coming years to help industry... 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will China’s trade surplus impact EMs? While EM policymakers haven’t raised concerns about Chinese overcapacity in the same way that their counterparts in the US and Europe have, they too are facing widening trade deficits with China. We... 24th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Green tech to stay central to China overcapacity fears The rapid expansion in China’s manufacturing capacity of green technology is a symptom of the country’s investment-led growth model and so there is no reason to believe that any change in tack is... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – sentiment still depressed A week spent visiting clients, contacts and friends in Beijing and Shanghai has underlined the extent of the pessimistic shift in sentiment within China. 23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update How worried should we be about the renminbi & yen? We continue to think that policymakers in China and Japan will do enough to keep their currencies from weakening much further, but the risk of a break lower in one, or both, is increasing. 27th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update “New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data Amid increasing concerns in the west over China’s dominance in the production of solar panels, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries – dubbed the “New Three” – China’s exports of green... 14th March 2024 · 0 mins read
China Economics Update Supportive fiscal policy will support growth in HK Today’s budget maintains a supportive fiscal stance, and contains major steps to revitalise the property sector. Spending to attract foreign visitors to Hong Kong and support businesses was stepped up... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC still only easing with caution The People’s Bank’s policy announcements today will provide only a small boost for China’s economy. Meaningful improvements in household or corporate borrowing would require substantial rate cuts or a... 24th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect China’s markets to stay under pressure for long We project decent near-term gains in China’s equities, think long-dated CGB yields will finish the year around their current levels, and expect the renminbi to rally against the US dollar. In view of... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What happens after Taiwan's election? China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan with stepped-up military drills. But any economic sanctions would almost certainly be... 10th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Chinese equities may keep trailing Indian ones While equities in China might make up some lost ground over the next few months relative to those in India, we suspect they’ll underperform over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we are... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China to buck the trend of rising equilibrium rates In much of the world, interest rates are likely to settle at higher levels than was the case prior to the pandemic. But China is a key exception, with its shrinking population, slowing productivity... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Five takeaways from the Financial Work Conference China’s leadership has outlined its wish list for financial sector development. It wants stricter oversight of financial institutions to ensure they serve the interests of the Party and country. This... 1st November 2023 · 5 mins read
