Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China to buck the trend of rising equilibrium rates In much of the world, interest rates are likely to settle at higher levels than was the case prior to the pandemic. But China is a key exception, with its shrinking population, slowing productivity... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Five takeaways from the Financial Work Conference China’s leadership has outlined its wish list for financial sector development. It wants stricter oversight of financial institutions to ensure they serve the interests of the Party and country. This... 1st November 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Foreign investment in China still going strong Foreign direct investment into China, as measured by the balance of payments data, has collapsed. It is tempting to pin this on global fragmentation or a loss of confidence in China’s economic... 30th October 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update New fiscal support needed to prevent end-year slump The additional fiscal support approved today is the intervention we had been expecting and that was needed to prevent an abrupt fiscal tightening in China in the closing weeks of the year. Fiscal... 24th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative performance of assets in China & the US We think both the recent outperformance of China’s sovereign bonds relative to those in the US and the underperformance of its equities will end – and may even reverse somewhat – in the near future... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Industry no offset for slump in property credit demand An increase in lending to other parts of China’s economy has provided a counter-balance to the slump in credit demand that was triggered by the property crisis, but still only a partial one. 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Why is China’s commodities demand so strong? China’s recent commodity demand has been stronger than might have been expected given the weakness of its economy and commodity-intensive property sector in particular. This partly reflects a step-up... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asian Tigers: AI boost will not offset drag from demographics The Asian Tiger economies of Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan are likely to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the emergence of new AI technologies. But the boost will not be enough to offset... 9th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China is holding on to its dollars Falls in the value of China’s recorded holdings of US Treasuries tell us little about whether China is divesting from the dollar. A broader look at the data suggests that it isn’t, despite... 4th October 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update AI, China and Global Economic Fragmentation The AI sector in China is developing on a distinct path from that in the West as a result of political choices made in Beijing and Washington. This split will in time extend around the world, becoming... 26th September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Another look at the renminbi, the yen & FX intervention While policymakers’ efforts to prop up the renminbi and the yen alone are not enough to generate a lasting turnaround, they will probably do enough to buy time until US interest rate expectations and... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC rate cuts: Go big or go home The quantitative tools that the PBOC relied on to pump up credit growth during previous downturns have become ineffective due to weak demand. That leaves interest rates as the main avenue for monetary... 11th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update What China’s grim economic picture means for its markets With the headwinds growing for China’s economy, we think its equity markets will struggle, its 10-year yield will continue to fall and its currency won’t rebound as quickly as we’d thought. In view of... 17th August 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Policy paralysis has dented near-term outlook China’s economy has stalled recently and headwinds are still intensifying on multiple fronts. The lack of a stronger stimulus response partly reflects a greater tolerance for economic weakness. But it... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read