China Economics Update China stimulus: your questions answered China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Property stimulus: announced measures still fall short Despite driving a surge in developer stock prices, the property support measures announced so far aren’t that different from previous efforts and are unlikely, on their own, to deliver much better... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia: key client questions answered We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s... 1st October 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update New fiscal package being lined up China’s finance ministry appears to be lining up a fiscal support package to deliver on the Politburo’s pledge of additional support for the economy. If a report by Reuters is correct, the package... 26th September 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Slowdown still has a lot further to run An acceleration in fiscal spending during the final months of the year should mean the 2024 growth target of “around 5.0%” is met, but only just – we now expect growth of 4.8% this year. China’s... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update US ending de minimis tariff waiver for Chinese firms The US is moving to limit the de minimis tariff exemption that has supported a surge in low value shipments from China over recent years. Only a subset of the roughly 8% of China’s exports to the US... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The differences for China in Harris versus Trump A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and... 12th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update New US export controls will be harder to overcome The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it... 9th September 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC at the mercy of leadership’s muddled priorities The PBOC appears poised to step up its efforts to prevent bond yields from falling, even though lower borrowing costs would help the economy right now. The inconsistencies in its policy approach are... 29th August 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Urbanisation won’t be a key growth driver In its new urbanisation plan, China’s government is setting its targets low. The goal of reaching a 70% urbanisation rate in five years’ time could be met with far smaller increases in the urban... 2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Plenum Decision fleshes out existing reform agenda The complete Third Plenum “Decision” document provides interesting details on the leadership’s reform agenda across a range of areas. Overall though, it reinforces the central message in last week’s... 22nd July 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Third Plenum fails to resolve policy tensions China’s leadership has promised to continue comprehensively deepening reform in a wide range of areas. But there are few signs that the just concluded Third Plenum marks a major change in the... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the outlook for the renminbi & the yen The continued weakness of the renminbi and the yen against the US dollar despite the narrowing of interest rate differentials via-a-vis the US is something of a conundrum, but our sense remains that... 11th July 2024 · 5 mins read
