China Economics Update RRR cut not a major easing move The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR). This will provide a bit of financial relief for China’s large and medium-sized banks. It may also help nudge down... 17th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EMs’ exposure to bank flows A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong’s recovery to benefit from fiscal support With Hong Kong’s economy on the mend, the budget unveiled today curtailed some of last year’s emergency spending. But it still signals a supportive fiscal stance, particularly in areas hardest hit by... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Rare drop in household wealth will cap recovery Bank deposits held by Chinese households have soared over the past year. But that mostly reflects a shift out of riskier assets rather than a surge in savings. In fact, our calculations show that... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Property will be part of the post-COVID revival The roots of the crisis in China’s property sector lie in the worsening long-term outlook for demand. This has not improved. But sales started the year so beaten down that a short-run cyclical... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect China’s “reopening trade” to resume Some of the moves in China’s financial markets that followed its rapid reopening – including a rise in equity prices, higher bond yields and stronger renminbi – have unwound in the past couple of... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Answers to your questions on the outlook for Em Asia We held a Drop-In today to discuss the big economic and financial market development across Emerging Asia. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn’t... 26th January 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Lifting the official retirement age is not the answer The contraction in China’s population has triggered renewed discussion of what the government could do to counter the demographic drag. One popular suggestion is to lift China’s statutory retirement... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update How many Chinese will hop overseas this year? The Year of the Rabbit that begins on Sunday will see a revival in outbound tourism from China that we expect to be stronger than recoveries seen elsewhere. China is reopening into a world that has... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economic fracturing in 2023 – new year, new risks The theme of global economic fracturing, which was the focus of our Spotlight Series of research last September, is at the centre of economic discussion in 2023, including at Davos. We held an online... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update A faster-than-expected turnaround We had expected disruption from China’s reopening wave of COVID infections to weigh heavily on activity well into Q1. But there is mounting evidence that much of China’s population has already been... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Reopening’s impact on inflation in China and abroad The shift toward living with COVID will put some upward pressure on prices in China. But the uptick in inflation will not be as large as that seen in many other countries as they emerged from COVID... 9th January 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Another look at the Hong Kong dollar Downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar has abated in recent weeks and we think it is very unlikely that the existing currency framework will be abandoned any time soon. In view of the wider... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Lying flat, getting steam-rollered China’s authorities appear to have given up trying to manage the spread of COVID-19. If we’re right, the surge in infections underway in Beijing will spread rapidly across the country. As is happening... 15th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
