Africa Economics Update Nigeria: naira weakness makes interest rate cuts unlikely The weakness of the naira over the past few months has made it increasingly unlikely that the Central Bank of Nigeria will cut interest rates this year. We now expect the policy rate to remain on hold... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak rand to prevent interest rate cuts The ongoing weakness of the South African rand means that, despite the sluggish pace of economic growth, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. We have taken out our... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fears of overheating in Ghana are overdone, for now A pick-up in GDP growth and a rise in inflation, against a backdrop of hefty twin deficits, have led to concerns that Ghana’s economy is overheating. But while a number of economic vulnerabilities are... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: decision to hold rates signals end of easing cycle With inflation likely to accelerate over the next few months and the current account deficit still a cause for concern, we think the Central Bank of Kenya’s decision to keep its benchmark interest... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ugandan easing cycle has probably ended Given that credit growth remains sluggish, we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts in Uganda over the next few months. But on balance, a combination of a pick-up in food... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI improves but conditions remain tough South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked-up in June, suggesting that, having contracted in Q1, the sector made a positive contribution to overall GDP growth in Q2. However, a combination of sluggish... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets get the jitters Signals from the US Fed that it intends to scale back its asset-purchasing programme later this year have had a notable impact on most sub-Saharan African markets over the past month. But while the... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What next for monetary policy? Monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa has all of a sudden become interesting. Ghana surprised expectations by hiking interest rates last month, while countries in East Africa have continued to cut... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: current account data provide respite for the rand South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed slightly in Q1, helping to ease some of the near-term pressure on the rand. But the fact that the deficit is being funded in large part by short-term... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: banking sector making progress but challenges remain Almost five years after a domestic banking crisis, there are encouraging signs that Nigeria’s financial sector is slowly returning to health. But while there are reasons to be optimistic, some key... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria may already be the region's largest economy Technical difficulties mean that the proposed rebasing and revision of Nigerian GDP data have now been delayed until 2014. Nevertheless, whenever the revised data are released, they are likely to show... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What is driving the weakness of the South African rand? Around half of the fall in the rand over the past month or so appears to have been due to global factors, while the other half has possibly been due to domestic factors such as labour unrest. With... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: interest rates unlikely to fall much below 10% Today’s decision from the Bank of Uganda to cut interest rates by 100bp to 11% is probably not a one-off. But, with inflation picking up and the shilling likely to come under pressure, we doubt that... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Will Rwanda continue to outperform? We expect a fall in agricultural commodity prices and a reduction in aid flows to lead to slower growth in Rwanda over the next couple of years. Nevertheless, increasing foreign direct investment into... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers continue to struggle South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained at a weak level in May, and a combination of sluggish external demand and domestic structural constraints means the sector is likely to continue struggling in... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand in freefall The South African rand has collapsed in the past month, falling by over 9% against the US$. The magnitude of the fall means that the currency may now be somewhat undervalued, but we expect it to... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read