Africa Economics Update South African GDP growth slumps in Q1 South African GDP growth was slower than expected in Q1, and the outlook for the coming quarters is not very promising either. Nevertheless, the fresh sell-off in the rand leaves the Reserve Bank with... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: rates on hold as rand plummets The collapse in the rand over the past week or so means that, despite the continued weakness of South Africa’s economy, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. In fact, it... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria resists government pressure to cut rates The Central Bank of Nigeria resisted government pressure to cut interest rates this afternoon, but we suspect that a combination of below-trend growth and sub-10% inflation will pave the way for... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Should we worry about the region’s current account trends? Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have seen their current account surpluses narrow or their deficits widen over the past few years, raising concerns that the region is vulnerable to balance of... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests small pick-up in Q1 Following today’s release of retail sales data for March, the Capital Economics South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that the economy picked up a little pace in the first quarter of this year. We think... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Q1 slowdown reinforces case for rate cuts The slowdown in Nigerian GDP growth in Q1 was due in large part to the oil sector, but more importantly from the point of view of monetary policy, growth in the non-oil sector also cooled. With... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia to remain a regional outperformer The tailwind of high and rising copper prices is unlikely to continue supporting growth in Zambia over the next few years. But improving governance levels and increasing infrastructure spending... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rates unlikely to fall further The Central Bank of Kenya cut its benchmark interest rate by a larger-than-expected 100bp to 8.50% today but, with inflation having bottomed out and the current account deficit still a cause for... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What next for inflation across the region? Inflation is likely to slow across West Africa in the near term, meaning that interest rate cuts are still a possibility. By contrast, inflation is likely to accelerate in East and South Africa. In... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing makes a better start to Q2 South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April suggests the sector may have rebounded a little at the start of Q2 having stagnated in Q1. But a combination of sluggish external demand and domestic... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update More countries joining the eurobond rush Sub-Saharan Africa’s eurobond markets hit the headlines again in April when Rwanda became the latest country to issue foreign currency debt. And with much of the region continuing to enjoy low yields... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak rand to provide limited relief for South African manufacturers Growth in South Africa’s manufacturing sector appears to have stagnated in the first quarter of 2013, but some policymakers have suggested that production could soon pick up as a weaker rand helps to... 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Effects of a Chinese slowdown to vary across the region An economic slowdown in China is likely to drag on growth in sub-Saharan Africa, but the more important point is that the effects will vary from country-to-country. Zambia is probably the most... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How would a slump in gold prices affect South Africa? The sharp drop in gold prices over the past week or so has led to a sell-off in South Africa’s stock market, but the sector’s declining importance to the overall economy means that, so long as further... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: inflation to breach target, but only temporarily South African inflation is likely to rise above the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range in the near term, possibly as early as this month. Nevertheless, any spike should prove temporary, and inflation is... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African mining rebounds, but still faces headwinds The strong rebound in South African mining output in the early part of 2013 suggests that the sector made a decent contribution to overall GDP growth in Q1. But nevertheless, the sector still faces a... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
