Africa Economics Update Further weakness ahead for Kenyan shilling The Kenyan shilling slipped to a seven-month low against the US$ this morning and we think that growing domestic political risk in the run-up to elections in March, coupled with a large current... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Big shifts in monetary policy unlikely in the first half of 2013 A combination of renewed optimism over the state of the global economy and an acceleration in regional inflation suggests that the interest rate cuts that had looked imminent in some parts of sub... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What to expect from the ANC Elective Conference News that South Africa’s deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe will challenge incumbent president Jacob Zuma for the leadership of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has added an extra layer of... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: a weak start to Q4 A slew of data released this morning indicate that after slowing sharply in Q3, the South African economy got off to a poor start in Q4. But with inflation likely to accelerate further in the coming... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: incumbent victory reinforces positive outlook Allegations of vote rigging have clouded the general election in Ghana, but these shouldn’t undermine the overall positive impact that victory for incumbent president John Dramani Mahama should... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa's current account deficit still a concern South Africa’s current account deficit was not as wide as expected in Q3, but the fact that it is being funded in large part by portfolio inflows means that external financing risks persist. The... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ugandan easing cycle has probably ended The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate today for the ninth time this year but, with inflation ticking up and the shilling having depreciated in recent weeks, we think the rate cutting... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing remains weak The small uptick in the South African manufacturing PMI in November suggests that the sector willnarrowly avoid a contraction in output in Q4, but does little to change the underlying picture of... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana elections unlikely to prompt shift in policy direction The final presidential debate before elections in Ghana next month revealed that neither of the two main candidates are likely to oversee a radical shift away from market-friendly policies... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: growth to remain subdued in 2013 South African GDP growth was worse than expected in Q3, and the outlook for the coming quarters is not very promising either. With strikes continuing to affect the mining sector, and signs of a... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa holds rates, easing to come next year The South African Reserve Bank kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, but the prospect of subdued growth and easing inflation suggests that a rate cut is likely in 2013. 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update East African energy boom comes with risks Discoveries of giant gas fields off the coast of East Africa in the past few months are likely to have a very positive impact on the economies of Mozambique and Tanzania. But while both countries... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Nigeria likely to cut rates next year The Central Bank of Nigeria kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today, but the outlook for slowing inflation and sub-trend growth means that monetary easing is likely to come onto the agenda in 2013... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests marked slowdown in Q3 The Capital Economics South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that the economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of this year. We think annualised growth dropped to 1.5% q/q, from 3.2% q/q in Q2. This... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Bank of Ghana to keep rates on hold throughout 2013 The Bank of Ghana kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 15.00% today and, with inflation decelerating and concerns over the cedi easing, we expect rates to remain unchanged throughout 2013. 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Elections take centre stage The recent peaceful transitions of power following elections in Senegal and Zambia demonstrate that the threat of voting-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been receding in the past few... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
