Africa Economics Update What is driving the weakness of the South African rand? Over the past decade, fluctuations in the South African rand seem to have been driven primarily by changes in global risk appetite. But while risk appetite has improved over the past six months, the... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets holding their nerve as Kenya delays election results Kenya’s parliamentary and presidential elections have so far passed relatively peacefully, helping to keep markets calm amid news that the results have been delayed due to technical problems. But the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: 2013 budget doesn't fully restore fiscal credibility We doubt that Ghana’s fiscal deficit will fall as quickly as the Finance Ministry seems to expect in its 2013 Budget Statement. Coupled with the fact that growth is now picking up, this means that... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers still facing big challenges The South African manufacturing PMI ticked up in February, but the overall sluggishness of export demand and problems in the domestic supply chain means the sector still faces significant challenges... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Non-oil sector driving Nigeria's economy The Nigerian economy returned to trend growth in Q4 on account of a strong performance in the non-oil sector. Nevertheless, with the oil sector continuing to drag on headline growth and inflation now... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: fiscal consolidation postponed again The South African Finance Ministry today nudged up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit for the next three years, but we suspect that the budget shortfall may still surprise on the upside. 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: pick-up in Q4 GDP masks underlying weakness South African Q4 GDP surprised on the upside but, 2009 aside, the economy still grew at its slowest pace for well over a decade last year. The drag from the mining sector is likely to ease over the... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Equity market rally loses steam Following a strong start to the year, the rally in sub-Saharan African equity markets has lost a little steam in the past few weeks. Nevertheless, the MSCI frontier Africa index is still up by around... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan oil boom masks medium-term deficiencies A boom in oil production should ensure that economic growth in Angola remains strong over the next two years. But an overreliance on the hydrocarbons sector, coupled with perennial concerns over... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fears over a return to "original sin" are overdone An improvement in global risk appetite and a sharp fall in emerging market bond yields over the past few months have led to a flurry of planned eurobond issues from countries in sub-Saharan Africa... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rate cuts still a possibility in Ghana The recent slowdown in both growth and inflation in Ghana suggest that rates cuts are a possibility this year, but concerns over currency weakness and twin deficits mean that significant easing is... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A primer on the Kenyan elections Kenya is preparing to hold elections next month, and with little to differentiate the economic policies of the two leading presidential candidates, voting is likely to be based in large part on ethnic... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Is the talk of a return to "original sin" justified? Fears that some African countries are returning to a period of “original sin” - characterised by excessive borrowing in foreign currency - appear somewhat premature. External debt levels are far lower... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Inflation taking divergent paths across the region Inflation remains lower in both east and South Africa compared to west Africa, but a combination of slowing inflation in west Africa and the fact that central banks here set higher inflation targets... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: trade deficit keeps pressure on the rand South Africa recorded its first ever December trade deficit in 2012, adding to concerns over its deteriorating current account position. This is likely to ensure that the rand remains weak over the... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Equities and currencies take divergent paths This is the first edition of our new monthly Africa Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse major developments in local markets over the past month, and to give an update on our... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
