Africa Economics Update Nigeria: non-oil sector continues to drive GDP growth The pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q3 was driven by an improvement in the non-oil sector, which has been due in part to continued loose fiscal policy. All of this would seem to strengthen the case... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Trade deficit revisions won’t take rand out of firing line The South African rand rallied yesterday following revisions to the methodology used to compile monthly trade data that resulted in a significant fall in the trade deficit. But the rebound has proved... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan oil boom masks longer-term problems A boom in oil production should ensure that economic growth in Angola remains strong over the next couple of years. But history suggests that it is difficult to sustain strong energy-led growth over a... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak South African economy not a major threat to rest of region The ongoing weakness of the South African economy has raised questions over the potential impact on the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. In this Watch, we argue that, due to a variety of factors, trade... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests slowdown in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the South African economy lost a bit of steam in Q3, with annualised GDP growth slowing to around 2.2% q/q, from 3.0% q/q in Q2. 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate hikes possible next year The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept interest rates on hold today and, with inflation having peaked, pressure to raise rates in the near term has eased. But a large current account deficit that is... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa PMI points to growth of 3% annualised The South African manufacturing PMI rose in October, suggesting that growth in the sector has picked up at the start of Q4. However, the series has been volatile in recent months. Cutting through some... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in South African unemployment needs context South Africa’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2011 in Q3 but, while this is encouraging, it needs to be seen in a wider context. Unemployment remains above its natural rate, which... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Natural resource boom will bring its own challenges The production of natural resources will be a key driver of growth in Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania over the coming years, but it is also likely to bring a number of challenges. In Ghana, oil... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: slower pace of fiscal consolidation The South African Finance Ministry chose to revise up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit in 2014/15 and 2015/16 rather than unveil new tightening measures in today’s medium-term budget statement... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Debut dollar bond issues still likely to go ahead The prospect of monetary policy staying looser for longer than initially expected in the US has left open a window for potential bond issues in Africa. We still expect a number of countries in the... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fiscal tightening to weigh on near-term growth in Zambia The fiscal tightening entailed in Zambia's budget for 2014 means that economic growth is likely to slow over the next year or so. Nonetheless, despite the overall cut in expenditure, public investment... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Why South Africa needs a weaker rand The South African rand was one of the hardest hit EM currencies during the summer sell-off and has now fallen by 15% against the US$ since the start of the year. However, as this Watch explains, a... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: debt ceiling alone won’t solve fiscal problems The IMF is right to argue that fiscal policy in South Africa needs to be tightened over the coming years in order to put public debt on a stable path. But its recommendation that South Africa adopt a... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Oil production alone won’t solve Ghana’s deficit problems On the face of it, comments yesterday from Ghana’s Finance Minister that oil revenues have been larger than expected this year should ease some concerns over the sustainability of the country’s twin... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI falls but still indicates decent growth in Q3 The South African PMI fell back in September but, following strong readings in the previous two months, it is likely that the manufacturing sector recorded decent growth in Q3 as a whole. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
