The Office for National Statistics confirmed that GDP grew by 0.4% in Q3 and the economy appears to have maintained its recent momentum so far in the fourth quarter. Indeed, November’s Markit/CIPS activity surveys indicate that quarterly GDP is on course to grow by around 0.4% to 0.5%. Admittedly, the news from the labour market has been less positive, with employment posting a surprise 14,000 fall in the three months to September and pay growth still showing little sign of life. But with inflation likely to fall back next year, this should enable real earnings to recover. What’s more, surveys of investment intentions and export orders continue to paint a positive picture. As such, we think that there is scope for GDP growth to regain more pace next year, rather than slow as the consensus expects.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services