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Norges Bank and Riksbank to follow different paths

Having finally begun its tightening cycle this week, we forecast the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate to 1.50% by end-2022, which is more hawkish than is currently priced into the market. Meanwhile, although repo rate hikes are well down the agenda at the Riksbank, we think that policymakers in Sweden will allow the balance sheet to shrink next year by more than most assume.

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