Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s next move will be to hike rates The Riksbank left both its policy rate and its interest rate forecasts unchanged at today’s meeting, suggesting that monetary policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future. And while policymakers... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to hold, risks to the upside further ahead The strong inflation data so far this year supports our view that the Riksbank has already ended its loosening cycle and will keep its policy rate at 2.25% next week. And we expect the policy... 13th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (February) CPIF inflation rose in February to 2.9%, supporting our view that the Riksbank’s loosening cycle is over. 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (January 2025) We think the 25bp policy rate cut that the Riksbank delivered today will be the final cut of this cycle as we expect the economy to rebound strongly this year. 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update The end is in sight for the Riksbank We think that next week the Riksbank will cut its policy rate for the final time this cycle, reducing it from 2.5% to 2.25%. After that, we do not see a need for policymakers to loosen policy any... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (December) The fall in inflation in December will ease policymakers’ concerns about upside risks to inflation. We had previously been expecting them to wait until March before cutting the policy rate for a last... 8th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from next week’s data Next week will be a busy one for data releases in Europe. We think that the data will underline that core price pressures are continuing to ease gradually in the euro-zone, while economic growth... 3rd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank divergence continues The Riksbank’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5% was widely anticipated and we expect it to cut just one last time next year, by 25bp in March. In contrast, Norges Bank left its policy... 19th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (December 2024) The Riksbank cut its policy rate by just 25bp today to 2.5% and it is unlikely to cut at its next meeting in January. Further ahead, we now expect just one more 25bp cut next year, in March, as we... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Low growth, low inflation, low rates We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening... 16th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update One step at a time for the Riksbank Next Thursday, we expect the Riksbank to reduce its policy rate from 2.75% to 2.5% as it closes in on the end of its loosening cycle. In contrast, we think Norges Bank will leave its policy rate... 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (November) While all three key measures of inflation in Sweden rose in November, this does not change the underlying story that inflation is around its target level and is likely to stay there over the next year... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bumper cut today, but smaller cuts to follow Today’s 50bp cut is likely to be the only one in the cycle for the Riksbank, and we expect it to cut by just 25bp at its next two meetings to take the policy rate to its “terminal” level of 2.25% in... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (November 2024) The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 50bp today to 2.75%, but the accompanying policy statement suggested that it plans only two more 25bps rate cuts to take it to a “terminal” rate of 2.25%. Given... 7th November 2024 · 2 mins read
