Q4 data point to pick-up in GDP growth

On the whole, the activity data suggest that GDP growth in the Nordic and Swiss economies has picked up. Granted, Icelandic consumer confidence suggests that growth might have slowed slightly. But it is still at a level consistent with annual GDP growth of close to Q3’s rip-roaring 10.2%. Sweden is not too far behind, with its Economic Tendency Indicator suggesting that annual growth might accelerate to as much as 6%. Meanwhile, Finland’s Economic Sentiment Indicator points to annual GDP growth of up to 5%. We doubt that the economy is performing quite that well, but it appears to have turned a corner. The other three economies lag behind, but growth is still likely to have improved since Q3. In Switzerland, the KOF business barometer points to annual GDP growth picking up from 1.3% in Q3 to around 2%. And the latest activity data in Denmark point to a similar performance. Finally, in Norway, activity surveys point to annual mainland GDP growth accelerating to around 1.5%. Broadly speaking, the improvement in growth prospects supports our forecast that the Nordic and Swiss currencies will strengthen this year.