Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2024) Economic growth was surprisingly slow in the third quarter as sporting event-adjusted GDP increased by just 0.2% q/q, a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in Q2. This will further encourage the SNB... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October) Another larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation in Switzerland will increase concerns that the country could temporarily enter deflation next year. This will pile on pressure on... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deflation risk to hang over the SNB We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) The unexpectedly sharp fall in Switzerland’s headline and core inflation in September will cement the SNB’s dovish stance and supports our view that the Bank will cut its key policy rate by at least... 3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB likely to cut rates by at least another 50bp While the SNB only cut the policy rate by 25bp today to 1.0%, the accompanying statement was very dovish and indicated that there are at least two more rate cuts on the way, probably in 25bp... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Sept. 2024) The SNB’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 1.0% today shows that it prefers a gradual approach to policy loosening, but the accompanying statement indicates clearly that further cuts are on... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to match Fed’s bumper rate cut We think SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan will probably use his last meeting to once again surprise markets by cutting the policy rate by 50bp to 0.75%. Policymakers will be unhappy with the franc’s recent... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Economy slowing again The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The core economies are the weakest, led by Germany which is probably in another technical... 18th September 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2024) Switzerland’s sporting event-adjusted GDP growth accelerated to 0.5% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in over a year and slightly above our forecast of 0.4%. At the margin this may give the SNB some... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Strong franc opens door to FX purchases and rate cuts Recent safe haven flows into the franc may have prompted limited FX interventions by the SNB. But we think that the policy rate will remain its main policy tool, even for dampening the franc’s... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (July) Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in July at 1.3%, keeping it below the SNB’s Q3 forecast of 1.5%. Reassuringly for policymakers, private services inflation fell for the first time in six... 2nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss-German bond yield spread likely to narrow slightly We anticipate the spread between 10-year Swiss and German government bond yields, which has widened significantly since 2022, will narrow only slightly over the next couple of years. 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) Switzerland’s inflation rate fell to 1.3% in June from 1.4% in May, but concerningly for policymakers, private services inflation rose for the fourth time in five months. We think the increasing... 4th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB cuts rates again, but likely to be last one this year The SNB’s decision to cut the policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was probably more influenced by the appreciation of the franc over the last two months than any perceived easing in domestic inflation... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
