After staging a brief recovery in Q2, the Latin American economy appears to have suffered a relapse in the third quarter. Our calculations show that regional growth slowed to just 2.5% y/y in Q3, from 2.7% y/y in Q2. With external conditions set to become increasingly challenging over the coming years, we expect the recent slowdown in GDP growth to become a permanent feature of the region’s economy. Accordingly, we think that regional GDP will struggle to expand by much more than 3% during 2014-15, down from over 4% during the past decade.
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