Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What La Niña means for Latin America There is a growing chance of a La Niña weather pattern taking hold in the second half of this year. While the economic effects would depend on its severity and length, La Niña events tend to coincide... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Q1 growth rebound, Panama votes, fiscal risks rising The activity data from Latin America released over the past week or so suggest that, having come to a standstill in Q4, there was a strong rebound in growth in Q1 on the back of robust services... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s drought, Argentina’s anti-austerity protests Recent rainfall has provided some relief to drought-hit Colombia, but with reservoir levels still perilously low, risks to hydropower generation - and consequently activity and inflation - continue to... 26th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign default risks still high in a few places The incidence of sovereign debt distress has continued to decline across the emerging world in recent weeks, driven mainly by an improvement in global risk appetite and the corresponding narrowing of... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Set for a slow recovery Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process... 26th March 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will... 13th March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier sovereign debt distress still high While the overall incidence of sovereign debt distress in the emerging world has fallen back since last year, sovereign debt distress in frontier markets hasn’t. And, if anything, things have taken a... 7th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Improved LatAm budget positions won’t stop debt rising Headline and primary budget balances across Latin America generally improved over the course of 2023 (Brazil was a key exception). But it seems unlikely that this will be sustained, and debt-to-GDP... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s spiralling violence, diverging inflation story The dramatic escalation of violence in Ecuador this week is primarily a social and security problem, but there will be economic implications too. Activity is likely to be disrupted and the government... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to lose their shine The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations... 7th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America: is another debt crisis brewing? Fiscal risks in Latin America have largely been out of the spotlight over the past year, but we think that public debt concerns will build over the coming years. Sovereign defaults seem more likely... 22nd November 2023 · 17 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina and Ecuador’s elections, Venezuela sanctions Argentina's dire economic situation will be top of many voters’ minds when they head to the polls on Sunday, but the election will also have important geopolitical implications. An opposition victory... 20th October 2023 · 7 mins read
