The initial uncertainty created by what would now be a shock win for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely be negative for the prices of industrial commodities, including energy. Over the longer term, Trump’s more favourable stance towards fossil fuels could be positive for the prices of oil and especially coal, although much would still depend on whether new policies have a bigger impact on demand or on supply. In contrast, a Clinton win is probably already priced in and near-term prospects would then continue to depend on current drivers, notably the actions of OPEC. But Clinton would strengthen existing trends towards more use of natural gas and renewables such as solar.
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