Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM recovery has continued in recent months, driven in large part by a strong rebound in China’s economy. This has a bit further to run but we think the recovery will begin to lose steam by early next year. The Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP grew by 3.4% y/y in September, up from 3.3% y/y in August. What’s more, the early data point to a further acceleration in October too. Our “early reporters” Tracker – which is composed of countries that have already released October data and together account for 50% of EM GDP – points to a pick-up in EM growth last month to around 3.6% y/y.
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