October’s manufacturing PMI data came in stronger than expected in most of Emerging Europe. Nevertheless, this does not hide the fact that hard data are weakening. On a quarterly basis, it appears that Turkish and Russian industry stagnated in Q3, while Hungarian industry already appears to be in recession. Poland is the one bright spot where industry is resilient but even here it is difficult to believe that manufacturers can continue to withstand the effects of a slowdown in Western European markets.
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