The next few weeks will see the publication of a host of third quarter GDP figures from across the region. While the data are likely to paint a downbeat picture, output should rebound strongly in the final quarter of the year. That said, the recovery is coming from a low base – GDP in most countries is still well below pre-crisis levels – and the region will enter 2022 with lots of spare capacity. This will help keep a lid on underlying price pressures and is a key reason why we think central banks in the region will be in little hurry to tighten policy.
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