Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Dovish BoK minutes, bumper rate cut in Pakistan The Bank of Korea’s minutes from its November meeting confirm that supporting the economy is now its main priority. We are expecting another 100bps of rate cuts next year in Korea. Meanwhile, Pakistan... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Close call for the Bank of Thailand The coming week sees scheduled central bank meetings in Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. We are expecting holds in Indonesia and Taiwan, but cuts in the rest. The closest... 13th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly What next for Korea? The longer the political crisis in Korea drags on, the worse the economic consequences will be. Consumer spending is likely to be affected and there will also be disruption if the country’s powerful... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s interest rate cut, falling inflation in Singapore The Bank of Korea surprised most analysts (although not us) when it cut interest rates at its scheduled meeting yesterday. The weakness of today’s activity data makes us more confident in our view... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Korea spring a surprise? The Bank of Korea pushed back strongly against the prospect of back-to-back rate cuts when it began its easing cycle last month, and most analysts expect rates to be left unchanged at the BoK’s... 22nd November 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New FX forecasts, BoT independence under threat We have finalised changes to our financial market forecasts following Donald Trump’s election victory. We think Asian currencies will weaken by 3-10% against the US dollar between now and the end of... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly North Korea tensions rising, US election implications North Korea’s relations with South Korea and its allies have taken a marked turn for the worse over the past month, with experts warning that “the situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous... 1st November 2024 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea dodges recession (just), Sri Lanka in deflation The Bank of Korea pushed back strongly against the prospect of further cuts in the near term when it lowered interest rates earlier this month. But the weakness of the Q3 GDP figures underlines that... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s property doldrums, Indonesia’s new president Concerns that interest rate cuts could lead to a renewed property price bubble in Korea look overblown. With housing transactions close to multi-year lows and the stock of unsold homes high by... 18th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea cuts, Bank Indonesia on a knife edge The Bank of Korea cut interest rates today and we are expecting the central banks of Thailand and the Philippines to follow suit at their scheduled meetings on Wednesday. The Monetary Authority of... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to begin easing cycle, oil price risks With inflation below target and activity data pointing to a further slowdown, we expect the Bank of Korea to kickstart its easing cycle at its scheduled monetary policy meeting next Friday. Meanwhile... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan latest IMF deal, CBSL on hold The loan deal that was confirmed this week between the IMF and Pakistan envisages a further sharp tightening of fiscal policy. This drag from fiscal policy is the main reason why we think GDP growth... 27th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Sri Lanka election risks, new Indonesia rate forecast Sri Lanka has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular recovery from the 2022 debt default crisis. However, this progress could be put at risk depending on the results of this weekend’s presidential... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Fed easing, SBP rate cut, BoK’s dovish minutes Bank Indonesia tends to place a lot of weight on US Federal Reserve decisions because of its mandate to ensure currency stability. We think a cut by the Fed on Wednesday will give the green light for... 13th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s reassuring budget, good news on inflation Indonesia’s budget for 2025 envisages a slight decline in the fiscal deficit to 2.5% of GDP, down from 2.7% this year. The announcement will provide some reassurance that president-elect Prabowo is... 6th September 2024 · 5 mins read
