We maintain our view that the imminent tightening of Western sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have anywhere near as large an impact on global oil prices as many had feared. Demand is weakening and other suppliers are both able and willing to meet any shortfall. Admittedly, much could still depend on how the Iranian regime chooses to respond. But with lower global oil prices further strengthening the bargaining position of the Western powers, we continue to believe that Iran will eventually make the concessions on its nuclear programme required to allow sanctions to be eased.
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