Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set to be Gulf’s growth star once again A combination of stronger oil output and a thriving non-oil economy will support stronger growth in the UAE’s economy this year, helping it to retain its crown as the fastest growing economy in the... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA PMI’s point to a softer start to 2025 February’s batch of PMIs across the Gulf were generally softer and we think that non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf will record weaker growth this year. In contrast, Egypt’s economy appears to be... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Aramco’s dividend cut puts a dent in Saudi’s budget The news that Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, will cut its dividend payout this year will put a dent in the Kingdom’s public finances and, together with a likely decline in the state’s... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ compromises amidst a geopolitical maelstrom OPEC+’s plan to increase oil output by 2.2m barrels per day over the next 18 months or so risks saturating the global market and highlights the downside risks to our already below-consensus oil price... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s economy waits for the North Field boost Qatar’s economy will be stuck in the slow lane for much of 2025 as non-hydrocarbon activity slows and LNG output remains constrained. But the North Field will start to come online from Q4 and provide... 26th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s real estate boom not a concern (yet) Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector is in the midst of a boom and affordability among Saudi citizens for housing is becoming increasingly stretched, which may tempt the authorities to loosen lending... 19th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s economy set for a modest acceleration Saudi Arabia’s economic growth will accelerate this year as the Kingdom starts to unwind oil production cuts from April. But while the Kingdom’s non-oil sector started the year on a strong footing... 11th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Solar take-up in Saudi will be felt in global oil markets The renewable rollout in Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate on the back of cheap solar panel imports from China. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that directly burns crude oil for... 5th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Egypt one year on – A progress report on the big policy shift 1741258800 March 6 will mark one year since Egypt embarked on a dramatic shift back to orthodox policymaking. So far, the authorities have stuck to most of their pledges.
India Economics Update The rise of the Indian tourist India’s outbound tourism market is poised to become one of the world’s largest over the coming years. The Maldives and the UAE are arguably the biggest beneficiaries, though Oman and Thailand are well... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy set for a strong rebound Egypt’s economy has struggled over the past year due to the effects of a weak pound, high inflation, and tighter fiscal and monetary policy, but there have been signs recently that a recovery is... 22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How worrying is Saudi Arabia’s public debt trajectory? Saudi Arabia’s government has been the largest EM issuer of hard currency debt over the past few years and this Update considers what will happen to the Kingdom’s public debt burden under different... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Egypt at risk of a sudden stop? The improvement in Egypt’s macroeconomic stability since March’s policy shift has resulted in a surge in capital inflows on a similar scale to that which followed the 2016 devaluation. But if signs... 8th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
