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Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025?

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An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.

Commodities Update

Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market

It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What would Trump mean for EM monetary policy?

A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets...

24th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for a slowdown

Saudi Arabia’s economy is making a steady recovery as solid growth in the non-oil sector offsets low oil production. Growth will continue to pick up over the coming quarters, but the drivers will...

24th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Qatar needs to keep a watchful eye over banking risks

The boom in bank lending in Qatar in the 2010s has unwound so far in a relatively orderly manner. Banks are well capitalised and are able to absorb a far greater rise in non-performing loans than we...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Answering your questions on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss progress on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme and the implications for the Kingdom’s economic outlook. (An on-demand recording is...

15th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

It is when, not if, Saudi Arabia opens the oil taps

Although the focus in the oil market has shifted to geopolitical risks and potential short-term supply disruptions, just as importantly, we think the possibility that Saudi Arabia could open the...

14th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia tees up fiscal consolidation for 2025

Saudi Arabia’s 2025 Pre-Budget statement provided the first clear signs that officials are accepting that they need to pare back on some of their ambitious spending goals, which supports our view that...

8th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties

Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider...

2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

Nasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East

The strike by Israel in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by Israel and Iran. On its own...

30th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

How will the Fed loosening cycle impact the Gulf?

The US Federal Reserve looks certain to start its loosening cycle this evening and, by virtue of their dollar pegs and open capital accounts, central banks across the Gulf will follow suit. Lower...

18th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs

The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia...

12th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi between a rock and a hard place on oil policy

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output aggressively in the past two years but this has failed to prevent a slide in the Kingdom’s oil revenues. Officials are facing a tough choice over what to do next and...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt: lessons from history point to Q1 rate cut

Attention in Egypt is turning to the timing of the first interest rate cut. The lessons from the start of the last easing cycle in 2018 suggest that this is likely to begin in Q1, which is a little...

3rd September 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk

The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate...

20th August 2024 · 5 mins read