Event Property Drop-In: How bad will it get for the UK and euro-zone in 2023? 17th January 2023, 9:00AM GMT After post-pandemic property rallies hit the skids last year, what will 2023 bring for UK and euro-zone markets? Economists from across our UK Commercial and Housing and Europe Commercial Property...
Canada Economics Update Shelter inflation set to fall sharply this year Strong rental growth and higher mortgage costs will keep shelter inflation elevated for the next few months, but we expect it to fall sharply over the rest of 2023 as lower house prices feed through... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) The impact of the surge in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget on 23rd September was realised in November as mortgage approvals collapsed. The modest drop back in fixed mortgage rates since... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack Central London leads housing market slowdown London house prices are likely to continue to underperform even if the shift in buyer demand away from the capital due to remote working ends. More stretched house prices in the capital prior to the... 3rd January 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) Australia’s house prices have never fallen so fast in such a short period of time and the risks to our forecast of a 15% peak-to-trough fall are shifting to the downside. 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Dec.) The slowdown in house price falls in December is little comfort when leading indicators point to further sharp declines. Despite mortgage rates edging lower in recent weeks, we continue to think that... 30th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) New home sales increased for the second month in a row in November. That is at odds with other measures of market activity, which have fallen sharply in response to the jump in mortgage rates. We... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales experienced their largest drop in nine months in November, as October’s spike in mortgage rates fed through to sales. But mortgage rates have since dropped back and are likely to... 21st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Full impact of higher interest rates hasn’t been felt yet According to RBA estimates, household interest payments jumped from 5.1% of disposable income in Q1 to 6.9% last quarter and we expect them to reach 12.5% by end-2023. With household debt around... 21st December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family housing starts continued to fall in November as weak new home demand weighed on homebuilder confidence. We expect this to push starts down to a trough of 650,000 annualised in the coming... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Jump in interest rates takes its toll The return of inflation for the first time in the inflation-targeting era has led to the biggest jump in Bank Rate and mortgage rates since the late 1980s. The steady downward trend in mortgage rates... 19th December 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Dec.) New listings fell in November but, because they are taking longer to sell, the inventory of homes for sale continued to rise. That is one reason to expect house prices to fall further, particularly if... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The World in 2023: Property prices to plunge Property markets rebounded strongly after 2020, in part boosted by favourable structural shifts brought on by the pandemic. But they have hit the buffers in recent months. And fortunes are likely to... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update What could go wrong in 2023? As several forecasters now seem to share our view that the economy will suffer a moderate recession next year, in this Update we discuss the risks that could result in a much deeper downturn. 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales to remain weak, despite fall in mortgage rates A fall in mortgage rates from 20-year highs supported the first rise in home purchase demand in eight months in November. Given that mortgage rates are likely to continue to trend lower from here... 14th December 2022 · 10 mins read