US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) A renewed rise in mortgage rates led to the largest month-on-month decline in existing home sales since February. As the impact of higher rates continues to feed through in the coming months, we... 18th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Single-family starts fell to 855,000 annualised in October which was much stronger than what was implied by the low level of homebuilder confidence. We expect further declines in new home sales to... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: US-China relations, regional elections and more 1669276800 November's briefing on Asia’s big macro and market stories included discussion of US-China relations in the wake of the Xi-Biden meeting as well as the economic impact of Beijing’s looser zero-COVI
China Economics Update More policy action needed to revive property sector Recent policy announcements have raised hopes that the property downturn may be coming to an end. But while the measures made public so far reduce some of the downside risks by giving developers and... 17th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov.) The plunge in new home sales in Toronto in September points to further falls in housing starts, although there are at least some signs that the worst may be behind us for home sales and that the... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rental market conditions begin to ease The small increase in vacancy in Q3 supports our view that the rental market is turning a corner and makes us increasingly confident in our call that rents will fall next year. Conditions remain... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Renters living alone explain tight rental market The recent surge in rental growth to a record high has been widely reported, but the usual explanations are unsatisfactory. Population indicators don’t suggest a sudden rise in demand, and there is... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch The signs of shifting cycles In recent weeks, attention has shifted from the likely size of rates hikes towards the timing of peaks and the prospect of ultimate cuts. History can tell us little about the likely profile since no... 10th November 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) The October RICS Residential survey showed that the spike in quoted mortgage rates to over 6%, a level last seen in 2008, has triggered a collapse in buyer demand comparable to that seen in the... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Sales to slump and prices to fall We expect mortgage rates will hold close to 7% over the remainder of the year, leaving affordability at its worst since 1985. That will lead to another sharp fall in activity. As the economy dips into... 8th November 2022 · 18 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) The 0.4% m/m fall in house prices reported by Halifax backs up the data from Nationwide that house price falls are becoming entrenched. Surging mortgage interest rates have flattened demand, as many... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Oct.) As was the case last month, an improvement in delivery times and subcontractor availability drove a surprise rise on the headline construction PMI in October. But a slowing economy and higher... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Sep.) & Building Permits (Sep.) The improvement in crop yields boosted export volumes in September, but the strength of exports was overshadowed by the also-reported record slump in building permits, which suggests that higher... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) On the back of a rise in mortgage rates to above 7%, home purchase applications took another step down in October. That points to further declines in home sales in the coming months. With mortgage... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) The jump in mortgage interest rates is now being felt in house prices, with Nationwide reporting the first month-on-month fall since July 2021. House prices are now set to stay on a sustained downward... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) The worst of the housing downturn is probably behind us but we still expect prices to fall by another 10% following the 1.1% m/m drop in October. 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read