Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s latest hike puts further pressure on housing The Bank of Canada’s 50bp rate hike this week means that variable mortgage rates are now more than 400bp higher than the start of the year. This raises the risk that some will be forced to sell their... 9th December 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Single-family rental growth set to fall back to earth The single-family rental market has been on a roll since the GFC and the pandemic provided a further boost. Nonetheless, while it may hold up slightly better than multifamily over the next year or so... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) A fall in mortgage rates from recent 20-year highs helped home purchase applications rise for the first time in eight months in November. However, while we expect mortgage rates to continue to trend... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) The largest monthly fall in in the Halifax house price index since October 2008 confirms that the house price correction that we forecast has begun. While mortgage rates have fallen back somewhat in... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) As expected, the headline CIPS construction index retreated in November as falling demand outweighed the benefit of easing prices and an increase in the availability of contractors. As the recession... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House prices start to fall: your questions answered Following the Nationwide data showing a larger-than-expected fall in house prices in November, we hosted an online Drop-In on 1st December to discuss how far prices could fall and what the downturn... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) The 1.4% m/m drop in house prices in November was far larger than anyone expected, raising the risk that prices fall more rapidly and further in response to high mortgage rates than we forecast. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) House prices continued to fall at a rapid rate in November and with housing affordability now the most stretched since the early 1990s, that downturn has much further to run. 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Lower Bank Rate path won’t prevent repricing As we now think Bank Rate will peak at 4.50% next year as opposed to 5.00%, mortgage rates will be a bit lower in 2023. But ultimately, the surge in mortgage rates over the past year will leave the... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep.) A deterioration in affordability helped the Case-Shiller house price index to fall for the third consecutive month in September. The FHFA reported a small rise in prices, but we think more falls are... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) Rocketing mortgage rates led to a sharp drop in mortgage approvals in October. While quoted mortgage rates have peaked they are unlikely to fall much below 5% next year, keeping the cost of buying... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK house prices go over the edge – how far will they fall? 1669888800 Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell and Andrew Wishart, who leads our UK housing coverage, held a briefing on the shape of the coming downturn i
Canada Economics Weekly Trigger warning Research from the Bank of Canada suggests that half of all variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgage holders have now hit their so-called trigger rates, which means their payments will rise. This is one... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update How will banks respond to falling house prices? Banks are likely to tighten credit conditions over the next year to protect themselves from house price falls. But their more cautious approach to lending in this cycle means we don’t think they will... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) New home sales have levelled off in recent months, but leading indicators support our view that sales will fall a little further by the end of the year. Looking ahead, we expect stretched... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update BTL investors face severe financial squeeze The record-low yields on rental properties and fall in house prices we forecast imply poor returns for Buy-to-Let landlords over the next few years. Moreover, the jump in mortgage rates means a... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read