China Economics Weekly Brighter days ahead for the housing market New home sales have almost halved over the past couple of years but a cyclical rebound appears to be kicking off now that government policy has turned more supportive on multiple fronts. 27th January 2023 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) The small rise in new home sales in December confirmed that the new build sector is holding up better than the wider market. This likely reflects builders offering generous incentives to attract... 26th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Activity to slump as prices adjust to higher rates 2023 will be the most difficult year for the housing market since 2008. Mortgage rates remain very high by the standards of recent years and can’t drop materially until the Bank of England shifts from... 26th January 2023 · 25 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Is this the end of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle? 1674666000 Join Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, Stephen Brown, who leads our Canada coverage, and Jonathan Peterson, Senior
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Single-family housing starts surprised on the upside in December. But it is too soon to call the bottom of the market. Indeed, another substantial fall in permits means we think starts are set to... 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2022) The Q4 2022 Credit Conditions Survey shows that while lenders tightened lending criteria in the aftermath of the “mini” budget, the main constraint on lending volumes was a collapse in demand due to... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec.) There was little to cheer in the December RICS survey, with prices continuing to drop and sales volumes falling further from November’s already-subdued levels. 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing supply shortages starting to ease The shortage of new housing caused by the government’s HomeBuilder grant is showing signs of easing. That means that the housing downturn should start to weigh on homebuilding in earnest and that new... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Housing downturns starting to take toll on economies Housing downturns are well underway in many countries and house prices and activity generally have further to fall. Construction activity is already suffering as a result. While it is hard to detect... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Signs of a trough in housing demand There are growing signs that housing market activity may be close to a trough. The decline in mortgage rates over the past couple of months has led to a small improvement in affordability and a rise... 12th January 2023 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update A faster-than-expected turnaround We had expected disruption from China’s reopening wave of COVID infections to weigh heavily on activity well into Q1. But there is mounting evidence that much of China’s population has already been... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update 2023 will see a difficult adjustment to higher rates Mortgage rates have probably now peaked, but they remain at a level that makes further steep falls in house prices and a slump in housing market activity inevitable this year. If anything, the hard... 9th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Resilient labour market may force Bank to do more The resilience of the labour market is a risk to our view that the Bank of Canada will pause its tightening cycle after a final 25 bp hike this month, even as the slump in natural gas prices raises... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key US Housing Market Calls for 2023 While we expect mortgage rates will fall to 5.75% by end-2023, affordability will remain stretched. Alongside a weakening economy and falling house prices that will weigh on housing market activity... 6th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The headline CIPS construction index fell below 50 in December, indicating a contraction in activity, as the recession hit demand and developers’ concerns about capital values increased. With both... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) The further large fall in house prices recorded by Halifax in December suggests that the house price correction is further advanced than we previously thought. Indeed, while the Nationwide figures... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read