Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Housing rebound doesn’t look sustainable House prices rebounded in March but we aren’t convinced that this marks the beginning of a sustained rebound. Affordability is set to become the most stretched since the early 90s and if the... 11th April 2023 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly House price rebound would make Bank’s job harder The local real estate board data suggest that new listings fell again in March, defying expectations that high interest rates could lead to forced home sales. With supply falling by more than demand... 6th April 2023 · 4 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack Affordability shapes London performance The Land Registry report that London house price growth slowed to 3.2% y/y in January and more timely data based on mortgage approvals show a 2.2% y/y fall in prices in Q1. The detail suggests that... 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Mar.) The March headline CIPS Construction PMI reversed some of its surprise jump in February, but it remained in expansionary territory. That was driven by the commercial sector, where strong expectations... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) The third consecutive monthly increase in house prices recorded by Halifax suggests that pricing is proving remarkably resilient to higher mortgage rates. But it is at odds with the consistent fall in... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) A sharp decline in 10-year Treasury yields in the middle of March led to a drop in mortgage rates, restoking demand for mortgage applications as a result. We expect this will help offset a tightening... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) With housing affordability the most stretched it’s been since the global financial crisis, we don’t think the uptick in house prices in March will be sustained. We’re sticking to our forecast that... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) House prices fell for a seventh consecutive month in February, taking the total fall from their peak in August to 4.6%. With house prices still significantly overvalued in today’s higher mortgage rate... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Housing market insulated from banking crisis The latest mortgage market data show that the banking crisis has, so far, had a minimal impact on the housing market. While spreads have increased, overall mortgage rates have dropped and applications... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Downturn moderates, but outlook remains challenging The partial reversal of the spike in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget has helped to stem the deterioration in housing market demand. Our measure of the average quoted mortgage rate has... 30th March 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Reflecting the partial unwinding of the spike in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget, mortgage approvals rose to their highest level for three months in February. However, with mortgage rates... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan.) House prices continued to nudge lower in January, taking the total fall since their June 2022 peak to 3.0%. But with affordability still stretched, we expect price falls to continue over the coming... 28th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly 2023 Budget unlikely to include large stimulus Despite the news this week that the population surged by more than one million last year, weak new home sales imply that construction activity will soon fall. That raises the pressure on the... 24th March 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What do bank troubles mean for UK mortgage lending? Bank failures have had only a modest impact on UK banks’ wholesale funding costs to date, reflecting an assessment that lenders are in good health which we think seems fair. Greater investor scrutiny... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The modest recovery in new home sales continued in February reflecting support from price reductions and incentives offered by homebuilders, as well as a tight existing home market pushing buyers to... 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus The impact of the end of Help to Buy on home ownership The Help to Buy: Equity Loan scheme was designed to counter an alarming drop in housebuilding and home ownership among young adults. It succeeded to some extent on both fronts, so the loss of the... 22nd March 2023 · 21 mins read
