Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Dubai GRE debts, Tunisia’s IMF deal, Saudi real estate Dubai’s economic backdrop has improved markedly in the past year or so and has provided government-related entities with room to breathe in the face of large debt repayments this year, including a $5... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Few signs of market bottoming out The survey data suggest that the modest decline in mortgage rates since October falls a long way short of what would be required for house prices to bottom out. The fall in market interest rates since... 16th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb.) The unseasonably warm start to 2023 provided little support to the housing market or construction, with sales and prices falling further in January while housing starts slumped to a 28-month low. As... 15th February 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growing signs affordability will constrain rental demand We expect stretched affordability and rising unemployment to lead to an increase in rental arrears and evictions in the coming quarters, causing rental household formation to turn negative and... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan.) There was some hope that, in keeping with the pause in house price falls recorded by Halifax in January, the RICS survey would show a recovery in demand on the back of the modest decline in mortgage... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) We suspect that the pause in house price falls in January reported by Halifax will prove temporary. Despite the slight decline in mortgage rates, affordability still looks far too stretched for house... 7th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Cash buyers unlikely to prop up housing market Most, but not all measures of house prices show that they are falling. That has led some to contend that cash buyers may be supporting prices. But we think it is just a matter of time before the ONS... 6th February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The headline CIPS construction index showed a contraction in activity in January, with the housing index seeing a substantial decline. But the forward-looking indicators improved, with future business... 6th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing slump still searching for the bottom Australia’s house prices are still falling rapidly and there is no bottom in sight. The fastest house price decline in Australia’s history will soon be the largest as the RBA continues to ratchet... 3rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Property slump push Swedish inflation down The fact that Sweden’s inflation rate rose more than expected in November and December is a key reason why we expect the Riksbank to raise rates by 50bp next week. Looking further ahead, however, we... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Lack of supply not the main cause of high house prices Canada has built fewer new homes relative to population growth than other advanced economies, but this alone cannot explain the much larger rise in house prices during the last decade. Looser credit... 1st February 2023 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) Given very stretched mortgage affordability, it was unsurprising to see house prices continue to decline at the beginning of 2023. The fall in house prices since their peak last August grew to 3.2% as... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov.) A fifth consecutive monthly decline in house prices in November left them down 2.5% from their peak in June on the Case-Shiller index. We think that prices will fall by a further 6% this year before... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) A further slump in mortgage approvals in December, to the lowest level since the height of the pandemic, confirmed that the extremely high cost of mortgage borrowing has caused more buyers to withdraw... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Fixed-rate loans delay and reduce effect of higher rates The shift away from floating-rate to fixed-rate mortgages presents risks as well as benefits. It will protect homeowners who are lucky enough to have a long time remaining on their fixed rate contract... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Affordability won’t return to its post-GFC level Our forecasts for house prices, mortgage rates and incomes over the next few years mean affordability will remain relatively stretched compared with the past 15 years. But there is good reason to... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read