Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Mar.)

House prices stabilised in February and, despite emerging signs of financial stress among households, we believe that the risk of renewed price declines is limited. Nonetheless, with affordability so...

18th March 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover

A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the...

15th March 2024 · 18 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb. 24)

The February RICS Residential Market Survey revealed a jump in the supply of homes for sale which, paired with a slight rise in mortgage rates, means that house price gains are likely to stall in the...

13th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Rental market continues to contract

The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 published by the Bank of England this morning added to the evidence that the Buy-to-Let (BTL) sector is contracting. Meanwhile arrears increased, but...

12th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

No end in sight to rising house prices

Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ will continue to curb home moves. As a result, we only anticipate a trickle of new resale supply coming onto the market over the...

5th March 2024 · 15 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)

Australian house price gains eased only slightly in February. However, with home sales now softening noticeably, we suspect that the momentum behind the housing rebound will soon fade.

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (Jan. 2024)

The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year helped new home sales regain some more momentum in January. But so far the rebound has been slightly slower than we were anticipating. Looking...

26th February 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Jan. 2024)

The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year was the catalyst for existing home sales rising in January. But borrowing costs have risen again in recent weeks, which in the near term...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop-In: UK Housing Market Outlook – Rates, sales, prices

1710408600

Now that mortgage rates have stopped falling, can the recovery in house prices continue? What will that mean for transaction levels and mortgage lending?

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will...

19th February 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Economics Update

Nearing the trough in house prices

Although house prices continued to fall in January, lower mortgage rates are beginning to support affordability and stimulate home sales. With the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to positive...

15th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Have we reached the end of the housing correction?

Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this...

14th February 2024 · 17 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Later rate cuts are the biggest risk to the recovery

Current fixed mortgage rates of around 4.6% are based on investors’ forecast that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% to 4.50% by the end of the year. We think that rates will be reduced a bit faster...

13th February 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Another challenging year for first-time buyers

The recent fall in the homeownership rate revealed by the Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) is unlikely to reverse given still-high mortgage costs. The survey also provided more evidence in support of our...

8th February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan. 24)

The strongest set of survey results since the tail end of the 2020-22 house price boom provided further evidence that lower mortgage rates have led to a recovery in demand. We suspect that respondents...

8th February 2024 · 3 mins read