US Housing Market Outlook No end in sight to rising house prices Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ will continue to curb home moves. As a result, we only anticipate a trickle of new resale supply coming onto the market over the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Australian house price gains eased only slightly in February. However, with home sales now softening noticeably, we suspect that the momentum behind the housing rebound will soon fade. 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Jan. 2024) The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year helped new home sales regain some more momentum in January. But so far the rebound has been slightly slower than we were anticipating. Looking... 26th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Jan. 2024) The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year was the catalyst for existing home sales rising in January. But borrowing costs have risen again in recent weeks, which in the near term... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK Housing Market Outlook – Rates, sales, prices 1710408600 Now that mortgage rates have stopped falling, can the recovery in house prices continue? What will that mean for transaction levels and mortgage lending?
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will... 19th February 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Nearing the trough in house prices Although house prices continued to fall in January, lower mortgage rates are beginning to support affordability and stimulate home sales. With the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to positive... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Later rate cuts are the biggest risk to the recovery Current fixed mortgage rates of around 4.6% are based on investors’ forecast that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% to 4.50% by the end of the year. We think that rates will be reduced a bit faster... 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Another challenging year for first-time buyers The recent fall in the homeownership rate revealed by the Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) is unlikely to reverse given still-high mortgage costs. The survey also provided more evidence in support of our... 8th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan. 24) The strongest set of survey results since the tail end of the 2020-22 house price boom provided further evidence that lower mortgage rates have led to a recovery in demand. We suspect that respondents... 8th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) Although house price gains remained firm in January, we still expect them to soften in the months ahead. While rate cuts are on the horizon, they will do little to improve homebuying capacity. 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q1 2024) London house prices were more resilient in 2023 than we had expected, falling by 2.4% y/y in Q4 close to the national average of -2.3% y/y. London is more reliant on mortgaged buyers than other... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Dec. 2023) New home sales rebounded in December, reversing nearly all of their decline in the previous month when mortgage borrowing costs were much closer to their 8% peak. 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jan 2024) If we are right to think that the Bank of England will begin lowering interest rates in June, the recent fall in mortgage rates should be sustained. The resulting drop in the cost of borrowing will... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Dec. 2023) A drop in existing home sales in December confirmed that they fell by 20% y/y in 2023 as a whole to their lowest level since 1995. (See Chart 1.) Lack of supply was the main reason existing home sales... 19th January 2024 · 2 mins read