London Housing Markets Chart Pack

London Housing Chart Pack (Q1 2024)

London house prices were more resilient in 2023 than we had expected, falling by 2.4% y/y in Q4 close to the national average of -2.3% y/y. London is more reliant on mortgaged buyers than other...

25th January 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Dec. 2023)

New home sales rebounded in December, reversing nearly all of their decline in the previous month when mortgage borrowing costs were much closer to their 8% peak.

25th January 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jan 2024)

If we are right to think that the Bank of England will begin lowering interest rates in June, the recent fall in mortgage rates should be sustained. The resulting drop in the cost of borrowing will...

22nd January 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Dec. 2023)

A drop in existing home sales in December confirmed that they fell by 20% y/y in 2023 as a whole to their lowest level since 1995. (See Chart 1.) Lack of supply was the main reason existing home sales...

19th January 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023)

The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to...

18th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait...

18th January 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec. 23)

Market was picking up even before latest slide in mortgage rates The December RICS Housing Market survey showed sales volumes rising and buyer demand recovering even before the further sizeable drop...

17th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack

We anticipate that mortgage rates will continue to fall in 2024, but more gradually than they have recently from 6.8% now to 6.25% by the end of the year. That won’t be enough to bring a great deal of...

17th January 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Stubborn rental inflation won’t prevent RBA rate cuts

In recent months, there have been growing concerns that the rapid rise in rental inflation will force the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates higher for longer. To be sure, leading indicators...

17th January 2024 · 15 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Jan.)

The decline in mortgage rates appears to be supporting demand, with home sales rebounding last month. While prices continued to fall in December, the sales-to-new listing ratio is now pointing to...

16th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

US Housing Drop-In: What do falling mortgage rates mean for the market in 2024?

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US house prices saw strong gains in 2023, defying widespread expectations for them to fall as surging mortgage rates crimped supply.

UK Housing Market Update

Scotland & N.I. to outperform, while the South recovers

There was a wide disparity in house price growth across regions in 2023 and little reason to think that this year will be any different. Following the recent decline in mortgage rates, we suspect the...

15th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Key US housing market calls for 2024

We doubt that the modest fall in mortgage rates we anticipate this year will bring a great deal more stock onto the market. Because of that, the supply of existing homes will remain very tight, so we...

12th January 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Update

2023 in review

In what was an extremely volatile year for the housing market, we made two key forecasting errors. Firstly, we didn’t anticipate the extent of the rise in mortgage rates. Because of that, we...

5th January 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Lower interest rates pave the way for a stronger 2024

Our forecast of earlier Bank Rate cuts mean that mortgage rates will be significantly lower than we had anticipated this year, which will lead to a stronger recovery in demand from mortgaged buyers...

5th January 2024 · 4 mins read