Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)

Australian house prices gained a bit of momentum in July. However, leading indicators continue to suggest that the housing market will cool markedly in the months ahead. Even if house price growth...

1st August 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Jun. 2024)

New home sales were essentially unchanged in June after their 15% slump the month before, not helped by mortgage rates which remained stubbornly high at around 7%. So far in July, borrowing costs have...

24th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Jun. 2024)

The sharp rise in mortgage rates in April was the catalyst for existing home sales falling to a 13-year low in June. However, borrowing costs have since receded and timelier indicators of activity...

23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Making sense of Australia’s two-speed housing cycle

Much of the recent resilience in Australia’s house price growth can be attributed to a handful of capital cities where the property markets have gone from strength to strength. We believe that there...

23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that...

16th July 2024 · 15 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2024)

Revival unlikely to materialise as soon as surveyors hope While demand continued to slip back in June, surveyors were optimistic it would soon pick up. Given elevated mortgage rates we suspect the...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (May 2024)

The 11.3% m/m decline in new home sales in May will steal all the headlines, but it largely reflected a significant upward revision to the April sales number, leaving us somewhat confused at the...

26th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025

Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation...

26th June 2024 · 20 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (May 2024)

Existing home sales were essentially flat in May which is somewhat puzzling given that pending home sales and home purchase mortgage applications, which lead transactions by a month, both fell...

21st June 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Jun. 2024)

The housing market was soft in May, with sales and prices edging down, but we expect conditions to improve over the rest of the year as the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates further and mortgage...

17th June 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2024)

Faltering demand and rising supply mean prices will slip back The May RICS survey was the weakest so far this year, as new demand faltered and sales slowed. With the quantity of homes coming onto the...

13th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum

The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Focus

Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much

Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on...

6th June 2024 · 14 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2024)

The tick up in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused demand to soften. As a result, house prices are likely to tread water over the coming months. But our forecast that Bank Rate will...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (Apr. 2024)

The spike in mortgage rates to 7.3% in April caused a sizeable drop in new home sales, as buyers decided to wait for a chance of getting a lower rate. We think this will partly reverse in May as...

23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read