Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s final presidential vote, Pemex woes The final round of Argentina’s presidential election between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa on Sunday offers starkly different paths for the economy – shock therapy or more of the current government’s... 17th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel rate cut bets increase, key stories from Q3 GDP Data for October out of Israel this week suggest that the initial impact of the conflict with Hamas on the export sector was fairly limited, that inflation pressures continued to ease and that the... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Autos continuing to drive export strength Japan’s auto exports have surged this year, with volumes back at pre-pandemic levels. Its tourism sector has been doing well too as visitor numbers have returned to where they were in 2019. That... 17th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) While the US economy considerably outperformed its DM peers in Q3, we think that all advanced economies will suffer a weak Q4. High interest rates are weighing on credit growth, and a further rise in... 17th November 2023 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Malaysia: strong growth unlikely to last GDP figures for Malaysia published today confirmed that the economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter of the year. However, with interest rates set to remain elevated and exports likely to... 17th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe that central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are done... 17th November 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to loosen, infrastructure outlays to ease Data released this week showed that Australia's labour market remained tight in October, while wage growth accelerated to a 14-year high in Q3. However, with leading indicators suggesting that the... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to buck the trend and hike again While the world’s major central banks now appear to have ended their tightening cycles, we think the Riksbank will raise its policy rate by 25bp again next week, to 4.25%, because of the strength of... 16th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q3) The slight slowdown in Israeli GDP growth to 2.8% q/q annualised in Q3 was more or less in line with expectations but comes before a likely sharp drop in Q4 amid the impact of the war with Hamas. We... 16th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Business Outlook surveys flag upside inflation risks We expect growth to slow and inflation to drop to central bank targets in major DMs in 2024. But the latest business expectations surveys on the face of it suggest that the risks to our forecasts are... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) The rise in Russian GDP growth to 5.5% y/y in Q3 was larger than expected and adds to evidence that the economy continued to overheat last quarter. With fiscal policy set to loosen further and... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2023) The softer-than-expected 0.2% q/q rise in Colombian GDP in Q3, coming alongside signs that the economy was weakening towards the end of the quarter, suggests that growth over the year as a whole will... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: outlook remains fragile despite oil price boost The squeeze on Russia’s budget and current account positions has eased over the second half of this year, largely thanks to a rise in oil prices. Higher energy revenues next year should help to limit... 15th November 2023 · 5 mins read
