Global Economics Update

Key risks for 2024

In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary...

30th November 2023 · 6 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Q3 & Sep.)

On the face of it, the upward revision to second-quarter GDP growth combined with the preliminary estimate of a strong monthly gain in October suggests that the surprisingly large fall in third...

30th November 2023 · 3 mins read

India Rapid Response

GDP (Q3)

The RBI had stated that the GDP data for Q3 (Q2 of FY23/24) would “surprise everyone on the upside” and, even despite that spoiler, the data came in much stronger than expectations. While economic...

30th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Consumer Prices (Nov. Flash Estimate) & GDP (Q3)

The small fall in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in November is likely to mark the start of a slower phase for the disinflation process over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the...

30th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q3 2023)

The sharp slowdown in Turkish GDP growth to 0.3% q/q in Q3, together with more timely figures for Q4, suggest that the economy is rebalancing in response to the policy tightening this year. With the...

30th November 2023 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

PMIs (Nov.)

Taken at face value, the PMIs suggest that the economy made some headway in November. However, they still point to a marked slowdown in recent months. That may not be the case in practice – the hard...

30th November 2023 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Private New Capital Expenditure (Q3 2023)

30th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct. 23)

29th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Oct.)

Russia’s economy looks to have started Q4 on fairly solid footing and we think GDP growth of 3.0-3.3% this year is now highly likely. Support from loose fiscal policy and a strong labour market should...

29th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in November, and suggest that activity in the region has continued to recover in Q4...

29th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EC Survey and Spain inflation (November)

Despite the rise in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in November, it remained consistent with the economy at best stagnating in Q4. (See Chart 1.) Meanwhile, inflation data released by Spain...

29th November 2023 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

China to buck the trend of rising equilibrium rates

In much of the world, interest rates are likely to settle at higher levels than was the case prior to the pandemic. But China is a key exception, with its shrinking population, slowing productivity...

29th November 2023 · 5 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024, but a challenging external...

28th November 2023 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North...

28th November 2023 · 1 min read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

China’s economy is making headway again after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure.

28th November 2023 · 1 min read