Chief Economist's Note China’s slowdown is a problem for Tesla and Zambia. Less so for global growth. In August 2015, a botched change to the way that Beijing managed the renminbi triggered global panic amid worries that a hard landing in China would take the world economy down with it. Crisis was... 21st August 2023
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Will public and foreign demand prevent a recession? With inflation cooling, the government may soon become more willing to support the economy, but we doubt it will provide as much support as it did during the global financial crisis. However, net... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to remain on hold despite inflation rebound While the renewed rise in headline inflation in July seems concerning, a closer look shows disinflationary pressures are still building in key areas. Together with easing demand, that should give the... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets on edge ahead of Jackson Hole The continued surge in long-term Treasury yields to their highest level since before the financial crisis, as expectations of an economic re-acceleration have mounted, sets a fraught backdrop ahead of... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q2 2023) Chile’s GDP contracted by a shallower-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q2, but the fall in output alongside downwards revisions to GDP growth in Q4 and Q1 will keep the door open for the central bank to... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s macro pressures, external conditions tighten Macroeconomic stability risks started to crystallise in Russia this week as the ruble slumped and the central bank intervened with an emergency rate hike. Policymakers are considering further measures... 18th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2023) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with... 18th August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jul. 2023) The 1.2% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in July probably had more to do with the unusually wet weather than the impact of higher interest rates on consumer spending. But with the Bank of England’s... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) Economic growth accelerated in Q2 but we expect a slowdown in the second half of the year as external demand weakens and elevated interest rates curtail domestic demand. 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan won’t rush to tighten policy With the economy seemingly running hot and underlying inflation still accelerating, the case for tighter monetary policy looks increasingly compelling. However, we still expect the Bank of Japan to... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy remains in a rut Earlier this week, the RBNZ signalled that rates would need to remain at their current restrictive level until early-2025. However, we think the Bank will shift gears well before then, given the... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s fiscal position, destination Dubai, Gulf inflation Egypt’s government debt-to-GDP ratio jumped to 96% in FY2022/23, one of the largest ratios in the emerging world, but there remain reasons to think that the government will be able to avoid a... 17th August 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Policy paralysis has dented near-term outlook China’s economy has stalled recently and headwinds are still intensifying on multiple fronts. The lack of a stronger stimulus response partly reflects a greater tolerance for economic weakness. But it... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read