Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s economy adding to the ANC’s struggles

South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy continued to struggle at the start of 2024, which will hardly help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in parliament after May’s...

20th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Global industry set for gradual recovery

The latest data suggest that global industry may be coming back to life. Much of the improvement so far has related to China, where policy will continue to support domestic production. But falling...

19th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – On course for a soft landing

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The global economic outlook is subject to various uncertainties which have left forecasters split over the possibilities of a hard landing, soft landing or e

Europe Economics Focus

Germany will be stuck in the slow lane

The recent weakness of Germany’s economy is partly due to temporary factors which should ease this year. However, demographic and structural headwinds, partly driven by global fragmentation, mean the...

19th March 2024 · 21 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: After the big vote – India’s macro and markets outlook

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In a big year for elections, this is the biggest.

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q4 2023)

The 0.1% q/q rise in Chilean GDP confirms that the economy had a stop-start recovery over the course of last year, but we think that it will make more solid gains over the course of 2024. Our growth...

18th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Would Vietnam win a second trade war?

Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated)...

18th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fed to stress caution amid inflation uncertainty

We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in June, although we don’t expect officials to provide a strong steer either for or against at next week’s FOMC meeting. The updated Summary of Economic...

15th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economic Outlook

ECB rate cuts will do little to boost growth

The euro-zone will remain close to recession until the second half of this year and the subsequent recovery is likely to be weak. Household real incomes will pick up only slowly and consumers will be...

15th March 2024 · 21 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Industrial Production (Feb. 2024)

In line with the rebound in retail sales, manufacturing output was boosted in February by the unwinding of the hit from the winter snowstorms that weighed on production in January. Even as that boost...

15th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Taiwan: strong growth, but falling inflation

Despite the booming economy, inflation in Taiwan has been falling back in recent months. Accordingly, we expect the central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday.

15th March 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

#3 in 2026

The key takeaway from our Q2 Outlook is that, while growth is likely to slow a touch, India will remain a global outperformer over the coming years. That will set the stage for India to overtake Japan...

15th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Australia’s sensitivity to Chinese demand rising again

Easing trade tensions and the relative resilience of iron ore prices relative to prices of fossil fuels have once again lifted China’s importance as a destination for Australia’s exports over the last...

15th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Long Run Update

Are weight loss drugs a game-changer?

There are so many uncertainties that it remains unwise to get carried away by the potential economic boost from the latest wave of weight loss drugs. Nonetheless, if use of the drugs continues to grow...

14th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM growth divergence set to continue

We expect the divergence in growth prospects observed in EM Q4 GDP data to be a running theme over the next couple of quarters too. Specifically, we think that some of last year’s outperformers...

14th March 2024 · 3 mins read