Latin America Economics Update What’s driving Mexico’s investment boom? A close look at the data suggests that the boom in investment in Mexico this year is due to a surge in transport infrastructure construction on the Yucatán Peninsula rather than a boom in nearshoring... 27th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria resists hikes, Zambia debt, Transnet problems Zambia and Angola raised interest rates this week in response to high inflation, but Nigeria didn’t. Indeed, the scheduled CBN meeting for this week didn’t even take place. The Bank now has its work... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs continue to point to stagnation in DMs The S&P Global PMIs have provided misleading signals about the strength of activity in the US and Europe this year. But, for what it’s worth, the flash surveys for November suggest that DMs are ending... 24th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal policy adds to headwinds Euro-zone governments have been tightening fiscal policy this year and will continue doing so in 2024 – all the more so if Germany chooses to make some additional expenditure cuts in response to the... 24th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) Nigeria’s economic growth was unchanged at 2.5% y/y in Q3 as a smaller drag from the oil sector offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters, as the... 24th November 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy performing exceptionally well India’s economy recorded solid growth in the first half of this year and continues to do so in the second half. While economic activity is likely to slow a touch over the coming quarters, we think GDP... 24th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q3 strength unlikely to last, CBSL cuts again GDP growth rebounded strongly across most of Emerging Asia last quarter, but we doubt this strength will last. We expect growth to slow in the near term as weak exports and tight monetary and fiscal... 24th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q3) and Ifo Survey (Nov.) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in November mirrors the increase in the Composite PMI released yesterday but leaves the index deep in contractionary territory. It does not change our... 24th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Japanese rates at 2%? China’s economic outlook, RBI preview and more 1701331200 Our latest monthly Drop-In on the big macro and market stories in Asia focused on new analysis making the case for Japanese inflation and the Bank of Japan policy rate both to hit 2% by 2030.
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy continues to show resilience this year and annual GDP growth is likely to come in... 23rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 23) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 23rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November 2023) Despite the rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November, it remained consistent with the economy contracting 0.2% in Q4. Meanwhile, the breakdown provides further evidence that the labour market... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CPIS Flash PMIs (Nov. 2023) The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 48.7 in October to 50.1 in November, is still consistent with a mild contraction in real GDP. However, activity isn’t weak enough to reduce... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) The batch of Polish activity data for October provide clearer signs that the economy has turned a corner and that a recovery is taking hold, driven by consumer spending. We expect this to continue... 22nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: strong growth unlikely to be sustained Economic growth in Singapore rebounded strongly in the third quarter of the year, but we don’t expect this strength to last. A combination of weaker global demand and high interest rates will cause... 22nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
