Global Economics Update Credit data point to recessions in DMs Bank lending data from the major advanced economies confirmed that lending was very subdued in September and the latest bank lending surveys show that banks have since tightened their lending criteria... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: Would an opposition win boost the economy? An opposition win in Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election could lead to a complete or partial reversal of the economic sanctions that China has imposed on Taiwan’s economy during Tsai Ing-wen’s... 9th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines GDP (Q3) GDP rebounded strongly in the third quarter of the year but we don’t expect this strength to last as high interest rates and weaker global growth lead to renewed economic weakness in the near term. 9th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The recent weakening in employment, easing in wage growth and signs that households are saving more and spending less have provided more confidence that higher interest rates are working. But we think... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep. 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in September and, in our view, will remain weak in the coming months as the economy falls into recession. 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction activity will continue to decline Activity in the euro-zone’s construction sector is declining and the outlook is poor. The latest surveys suggest that construction output will decline by up to 2% q/q in Q4. 7th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Costa Rica: bright outlook amid short term headwinds Growth in Costa Rica is likely to slow by more in 2024 than officials currently expect amid weaker growth in the US, high commodity prices and tight fiscal policy. Further ahead, though, a burgeoning... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s next move will be down As had been widely expected, the RBA handed down a 25bp rate hike at its meeting today. With the cash rate now at 4.35%, we believe the Bank’s tightening cycle is over. If we’re right that the... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (October 2023) Final PMIs released today confirmed the preliminary estimates and are consistent with our forecast that euro-zone GDP will contract again in Q4. They also suggest that price pressures are continuing... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q3 2023) Figures released today suggest that economic growth remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. Our own in-house activity tracker shows that the economy is... 6th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Riksbank “bailout” not as bad as it looks The Riksbank’s request for a capital injection from the government is not a good look for an independent central bank. But its QE-related losses will be smaller than those of many other central banks... 3rd November 2023 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly In recession Employment edged up in October but the broad-based weakness of GDP growth, the depressed business surveys and the rapidly weakening housing market all suggest that the economy is in the early stages... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate cuts still a long way off, fiscal rules debate This week’s comments by ECB officials, as well as signs that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain strong, support our view that the first ECB rate cut will only come in the second... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rise in unemployment rate not a big macro concern At face value, a sharp rise in unemployment last month suggests that the Indian economy is rapidly losing momentum. But on closer inspection, the increase was entirely caused by rising joblessness in... 3rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
