Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q4 2023)

The pick-up in Turkish GDP growth to 1.0% q/q in Q4 was driven by a rebound in private consumption and suggests that aggressive monetary tightening has yet to take the sting out of domestic demand...

29th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 24)

29th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 24)

29th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Feb.)

The latest activity data for January suggest that Russia’s economy maintained solid growth at the start of this year, which supports our forecast for above-potential GDP growth of 3.0% over the course...

28th February 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation fades. Even so, tight fiscal and...

28th February 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally fell in February, but still point to regional GDP growth strengthening in Q1.

28th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EC Survey (February)

The EC business and consumer survey for February reinforces the message that the economy is close to recession and that, although price pressures in the services sector eased slightly, they remain...

28th February 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ’s tightening bias is on borrowed time

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand handed down another hawkish hold at its meeting today. However, with inflation on track to return to its 1-3% target by mid-year, we still expect the Bank to start...

28th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

What’s behind US economic exceptionalism?

Larger government stimulus during the pandemic and a higher propensity to run down “excess savings” have contributed to particularly strong growth in the US. On the other hand, a significant terms of...

27th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Monthly data overstating German industrial decline

Monthly industrial production data have been overstating the decline in German industry. Nonetheless, the more accurate gross value added measure still shows that activity has been falling.

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

26th February 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Update

Trump tariffs a net negative for Japan in the long run

We estimate that in the near-term, the drag on Japan’s exports resulting from of a universal 10% US import tariff could be nearly offset by Japan gaining market share at the expense of China in...

26th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE wage growth still hot, new Russia sanctions

The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of...

23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown

Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next...

23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Underlying inflation still a worry, more German gloom

The recent increase in surveys of price pressures and the strong German wage figures released this week suggest there is still not enough evidence to convince the ECB that underlying inflationary...

23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read