Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3, Breakdown) The second estimate of Italy’s GDP in Q3 showed that the economy performed even worse than previously thought. And while we know that temporary disruption in the car industry weighed on the economy in... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2018) The robust 0.8% q/q expansion in Brazilian GDP in Q3 was flattered by the recovery from disruptions caused by the truck drivers’ strike in May. That said, the improvement in the latest survey data... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The weak tone of GfK/NOP’s Consumer Confidence Survey in November suggests that Brexit uncertainty is starting to weigh more heavily on confidence, which sets the stage for slightly weaker consumer... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Nov.), Finnish & Danish GDP (Q3) November’s fall in the KOF Economic Barometer adds to the evidence that Swiss growth has shifted down a gear. And with inflation weak, we expect the SNB to keep policy ultra-loose until at least 2020. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Nov.) Downbeat official PMI readings for November suggest that growth remains under pressure, with signs that the recent uptick in construction activity is fizzling out as local governments pare back... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Oct.) & Tokyo CPI (Nov.) The surge in industrial production in October is a strong sign that the economy returned to growth in the fourth quarter. That suggests that October’s weakening in the labour market data won’t be... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Amlo: five things that would signal further populist shift Having struck a business-friendly tone after his election, Mexico’s president elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador has more recently begun to unnerve investors. Ahead of his inauguration on Saturday... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices batter key economies The recent sharp fall in oil prices will add to headwinds facing the economies of Nigeria and Angola. We estimate that both country’s export revenues will have fallen by about a US$1bn over the past... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slowed in Q3, but stabilising in Q4 Aggregate EM economic growth slowed to its weakest rate in over a year in Q3, but the data for October provide early signs that growth has started to stabilise in Q4. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) Annual consumer credit growth continued to slow in October, reaching a three-year low, providing further evidence that consumers’ appetite for unsecured debt is waning a little. But so long as a... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling consumer confidence not as bad as it looks The recent fall in euro-zone consumer confidence has reflected a decline in optimism about the general economic outlook, which may well continue. But this need not imply that a slowdown in spending... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Taking the Long View: Africa in 2040 African economies will probably remain among the fastest-growing in the world over the coming decades. But slow productivity growth will prevent convergence with high income countries. Indeed, we... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slump and output cuts, Egypt’s IMF deal The recent slump in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, although it does look like policymakers will push ahead with an oil output cut at next week’s OPEC meeting... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.) November’s modest decline in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) left it consistent with solid GDP growth which will encourage the ECB to end its asset purchases next month as... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Swiss GDP (Q3) The very weak Swiss Q3 GDP data make us more confident that the SNB will keep monetary policy ultra-loose longer than investors expect. Meanwhile, the contraction in the Swedish economy in Q3 suggests... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) Our weighted average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) rose in November, suggesting that regional growth remained at around 4.5% y/y in Q4. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
