UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The rise in the manufacturing PMI in November suggests that a substantial fall in manufacturing output in Q4 will be avoided. However, the big picture is that the sector is struggling. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The increase in manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Norway in November offers hope that the weakness of economic activity in Q3 was not the start of a deeper downturn. But since the surveys... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The rebound in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI to 49.5 in November is the latest sign that the economy is now recovering following a very weak performance earlier this year. Even so, we think that... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMIs suggest that Central European industrial production growth will weaken markedly in the final months of 2018. Even so, with other sectors holding up well, that’s unlikely to result in a... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The greater-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in November, to 21.6% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank pushes ahead with an interest cut in the coming months. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) India’s manufacturing PMI jumped again in November, defying the drop in the PMI readings across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The latest survey data suggest that conditions in industry remained broadly stable last month. But we still think that growth will slow during the next few quarters, even though the immediate threat... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The November PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost further momentum in the middle of Q4. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders supports our view that the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) We suspect the decline in house prices in the eight capital cities is going to continue and house prices will go on to eventually fall by at least 12%. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus turns to Bank of Canada This week’s media coverage painted far too positive a picture of foreign direct investment in Canada, which remains lower than a year ago and after the recent slump in oil prices is likely to... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit polarises the outlook for interest rates The Bank of England’s harrowing assessment of the consequences of a “no deal ” Brexit grabbed the headlines this week. But it was designed to be an extreme scenario, and based on some implausible... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy rebounding, government details tax offsets This week brought reassurance that the contraction in the economy in Q3 was largely due to one-off factors. The early signs are that there has been a strong rebound this quarter. In the week ahead... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Weak Q3 data bode ill for Switzerland and Sweden Data released this week which showed that Swiss GDP contracted in Q3 support our view that the SNB will keep interest rates on hold longer than investors currently expect. Meanwhile, other data showed... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2018) The economy’s third-quarter performance was weaker than the headline GDP gain of 2.0% annualised suggests. Consumer spending growth slowed sharply, while investment contracted for the second quarter... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier sovereign debt worries in the spotlight Frontier market dollar debt markets have been rattled in recent months. Part of this is due to the fall in oil prices, which helps to explain the widening of spreads in Venezuela and Nigeria. But that... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) Indian GDP growth slowed in Q3 but remained strong by recent standards. The economy should continue to expand rapidly over the coming months, supported by looser fiscal policy ahead of next year’s... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
