Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) & Retail Sales (Sep.) Headline inflation picked up in October, but slumping energy prices mean that it is likely to decline sharply from here. There were few signs of increasing core price pressures in October, and we... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss-EU relations freeze bodes ill for Swiss economy Sunday’s referendum on whether to place Swiss law above international law threatens to undermine treaty negotiations currently taking place between Switzerland and the EU. Failure to strike a deal on... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war not to blame for Q3 slowdown A lot of commentary has blamed the slowdown in Asian GDP growth in the third quarter on the trade war between the US and China. We think these claims are misguided. The most obvious explanation for... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s fall in the Composite PMI raises doubts about whether the economy will rebound after a weak Q3. This won’t be enough to stop the ECB from ending its asset purchases next month, but it... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further stock market falls won’t drag on spending Japan’s stock market has already fallen by 11% since its recent peak in early October, and we expect further declines in 2019 as equity prices tumble in the US and the yen strengthens. But this won’t... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Fall update fiscal projections too upbeat In his fall budget update, Finance Minister Bill Morneau more than used up the revenue windfall from stronger GDP growth and higher oil prices this year to increase incentives for business investment... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Strong construction activity propping up growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth held up fairly well in October, supported by robust construction activity. But with a property demand weak and signs that developers are becoming... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Polish activity data for October were stronger than expected and suggest that the economy continued to motor along at a rapid pace at the start of Q4. 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Chinese investment could make problems worse By seeking closer ties and increased investment from China, President Duterte of the Philippines risks repeating the mistakes made by other countries in the region. With the current account deficit... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3 Revised) The revised estimate of Singapore’s Q3 GDP showed that the economy cooled off in Q3, and with external demand set to weaken and interest rates rising, growth is likely to stay weak over the next... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q3 2018) The slowdown in Peruvian GDP growth from 5.4% y/y in Q2 to 2.3% y/y in Q3 is likely to be a blip, and growth should be stronger in Q4. Even so, growth is likely to be weaker than most expect over 2019... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for Asian growth? Growth slowed significantly in Emerging Asia last year, and is likely to remain fairly subdued over the coming year, with looser fiscal policy unlikely to offset the drag from weaker global demand and... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA can hike while Fed cuts Australia’s economy has become less sensitive to conditions in the US as their trade links have diminished. The upshot is that the RBA should be able to hike interest rates in 2020 even if our... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Oil price fall to boost current account position As one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, India should be a key beneficiary of the recent slide in global oil prices. If prices remain lower, as we think likely, the oil import bill will... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plans to offset sales tax hike won’t stop spending slump The measures under consideration to offset the damage from next year’s sales tax hike may help to soften the blow if big enough. But they are unlikely to prevent a fall in domestic demand. 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Durables consumption is the other shoe to drop In contrast to other rate-sensitive areas of spending, durable goods consumption has held up well in recent months, boosted by the tax cuts. Nevertheless, as the fiscal stimulus fades and interest... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
